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Season 57 All Star Predictions
I did this last season for the first time, so I thought I'd do it again. Much like my power rankings, I base these all-star predictions on player efficiency for the season, which is interesting because there are a number of players I had to pull (specifically from the Great 8) from the average rating rankings because they weren't in the top 20 in efficiency in the division, and there was one position (Backup SF) for the Great 8 that I had to pull based on rating supplemented by a bizarre made up formula to weight their statistics and produce a final number to make the selection. I'll write about that a little later. But for now, on to the predictions! The number listed after the team’s name represents the player's average rating on the season.

Big 8 Starters
PG: Juan Gilberto Segovia - The Beer Bellys - 12.8 - ranked 9th in EFF
SG: Collin McMahon - War Birds - 12.0 - ranked 15th in EFF
SF: Jean-Louis Fleurent - Mighty Moose Rockets - 14.6 - ranked 5th in EFF
PF: Walenty Kofan - Mighty Moose Rockets - 14.6 - ranked 1st in EFF
C : Terry Armstead - Lion Rebels - 15.2 - ranked 2nd in EFF

Great 8 Starters
PG: Dwayne Nava - Gremlins - 13.9 - ranked 19th in EFF
SG: Arys Varpukevicius - Miami Cleo - 14.4 - ranked 18th in EFF
SF: Cristiano Masetti - Weather Society - 9.7 - ranked 16th in EFF
PF: Ramón Peñalver - Gremlins - 13.4 - ranked 7th in EFF
C : Wu Chan Kiew - Gremlins - 14.6 - ranked 6th in EFF

Big 8 Backups
PG: Miguel Velasco - Philly Dribble - 15.9 - unranked in EFF, but ranked 1st in AR
SG: Paride Fasselli - Philly Dribble - 15.3 - unranked in EFF, but ranked 2nd in AR
SF: Bulvio Barrera - The Beer Bellys - 11.1 - ranked 8th in EFF
PF: Nikos Neochoritis - Rip City Revival - 12.7 - ranked 3rd in EFF
C : Milos Zivanic - War Birds - 12.5 - ranked 11th in EFF

Great 8 Backups
PG: Lorenzo Rojas - The Ashkickers - 13.7 - unranked in EFF, but ranked 14 in AR
SG: Denis Minkinen - Żubr Białystok - 13.9 - unranked in EFF, but ranked 12 in AR
SF: Vincenzo Sesamo* - The Ashkickers - 12.0 - unranked in EFF, and unranked in AR
PF: Toni Colomina - The Ashkickers - 11.3 - ranked 14th in EFF
C : Huang Yuyao - Żubr Białystok - 15.2 - unranked in EFF, but ranked 4th in AR

Snubs and Other Notes
From the efficiency side of things, the Biggest Snub Award goes to The Beer Bellys Isidre Homs at PF with an average EFF of 23 and an EFF/48 min of 30.7. He's ranked 4th in average EFF and averages 16 PTS/game to go along with his 12.0 rebounds (7th).
Other Snubs Receiving Votes (not in any order):
- Mikhail Klimenkov (C) - Linndale - 9.9 PTS/game, 12.1 Reb/game (6th) - 12.3 AR - 18.1 EFF (17th)
- Arley Coronado (PF) - Linndale - 14.2 PTS/game, 11.8 Reb/game (10th) - 12.9 AR - 19.1 EFF (13th)
- Yüce Semiramis (C) - The Beer Bellys - 12.8 PTS/game, 11.9 Reb/game (9th) - 12.1 AR - 19.5 EFF (12th)
- Miloš Živanić (C) - War Birds - 12.4 PTS/game, 11.4 Reb/game - 12.3 AR - 19.6 EFF (11th), and arguably the Birds best player
- David Charles (C) - Mighty Moose Rockets - 13.6 PTS/game, 11.7 Reb/game - 11.4 AR - 19.6 EFF (10th)
- Jukums Pugejs (C) - Seattle SuperSonicz - 8.7 PTS/game, 15.7 Reb/game (1st) - 12.7 AR - 17.4 EFF (20th)

Edit: I don't know why I all the sudden thought Beer Belly was in the Big 8! I'm a dingus.

Last edited by Baine at 6/5/2022 12:43:36 PM

Snubs and other notes (continued)
A note on backup SF for the Great 8
Because there was only one small forward for the Great 8 ranked in either average rating or efficiency, I pulled the statistics for the season on the rest of the starting SF in their conference. Of those seven, four players had an average rating of exactly 12.0. Those players were:
The Ashkicker's Vincenzo Sesamo
Miami Cleo's Marko Maurin
Gremlin's Juan Carolos Vazquez
Żubr Białystok's Sam Dickens

Of the four, three were equal in terms of stats, all within five points in PTS/game, within 1.2 Reb/game and all within a percentage point for FGs. Those three might be the best "traditional" small forward - decent scoring with help on the boards and fair assists. But I'm a sucker for points scored, which is why I went with Ash's Vincenzo who averaged 5 more points than the 2nd closest (10 more than the 4th) and had a better FG%.

3 Point Shooting Contest Predictions
Looking back on my notes post Season 56 all-star festivities, the 3-point competition players selected seemed a little abnormal, so I'm anticipating these guesses to be not even close! It seemed to me last season that you had to have at least 50 attempts, which immediately cuts out 10 of the top twenty 3-point shooters this season, including those ranked:
1. Arthur Newman - Ashkickers - 62.1% on 29 shots
2. Miguel Velasco - Philly Dribble - 51.2% on 43 shots
3. Elran Chazan - Linndale - 50% on 18 shots.

If my theory is correct, this is who we'll see competing for the 3-point competition:
Juan Carlos Vazquez - Gremlins - 49.1% on 57 shots
Bulvio Barrera - Beer Bellys - 48.1% on 52 shots
Collin McMahon - War Birds - 46% on 87 shots
Denis Minkinen - Żubr Białystok - 45.9% on 61 shots
Craig Taylor - Weather Society - 42% on 88 shots, and
Dan Donlon - pintipv - 42% on 112 shots (an incredible 9.3 attempts per game!)

I always feel like this competition is a crapshoot, but I'm guessing Birds' Collin McMahon brings home the trophy next week.

Until then, good luck tomorrow night and we'll catch ya at All Star Week!

Last edited by Baine at 6/3/2022 2:06:31 PM

Funny that my guy qualifies at PF. I guess technically he’s played as many or more games at PF due to training progressions.

Thanks for the write ups it truly makes the game that much more enjoyable!

It is funny, especially since he's 6'3". I only pulled his position from the Buzzer Manager efficiency rankings - that's what they had him listed as, probably because he's played two more games as a PF than as SG. His numbers are great, so I imagine he'll make it, but I guess I wouldn't be surprised if BB slotted him in as a SG instead. Guess we'll find out on Monday.

Day 13 (Saturday 4 June 2022) : Performances by (https://www.buzzer-manager.com)

Night results
Miami Cleo 95 - Mighty Moose Rockets 98
Dallas Bomskwad 61 - Lion Rebels 115
Weather Society 62 - San Dominica Warriors 133
The Beer Bellys 67 - Rip City Revival 84
pintipv 112 - Seattle SuperSonicz 120
Gremlins 114 - War Birds 97
The Ashkickers 82 - Philly Dribble 107
Żubr Białystok 101 - Linndale 91

Best collective performance of the evening
Points : 133 : San Dominica Warriors
Rebounds : 64 : Philly Dribble
Assists : 43 : San Dominica Warriors
Steals : 12 : San Dominica Warriors
Block Shots : 10 : San Dominica Warriors

Personal best performances of the evening
Points : 37 : J. Fleurent (Mighty Moose Rockets), R. Sole (pintipv)
Rebounds : 24 : W. Kofan (Mighty Moose Rockets)
Assists : 11 : H. Šapiras (Żubr Białystok)
Steals : 4 : W. Kofan (Mighty Moose Rockets), K. Brown (Lion Rebels)
Block Shots : 4 : L. Urban (Linndale)

Top 5 of the evening
Point Guard : R. Sole (pintipv) (37 Points, 1 Rebounds, 5 Assists, 1 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 33
Shooting Guard : F. Alidori (San Dominica Warriors) (24 Points, 6 Rebounds, 7 Assists, 1 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 33
Small Forward : S. Dickens (Żubr Białystok) (26 Points, 12 Rebounds, 5 Assists, 2 Steals, 1 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 36
Power Forward : W. Kofan (Mighty Moose Rockets) (22 Points, 24 Rebounds, 5 Assists, 4 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 46
Center : J. Fleurent (Mighty Moose Rockets) (37 Points, 13 Rebounds, 5 Assists, 0 Steals, 1 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 30

MVP of the evening
W. Kofan (Mighty Moose Rockets) (22 Points, 24 Rebounds, 5 Assists, 4 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 46

The bad performance of the evening
S. Vecchia (pintipv) (3 Points, 0 Rebounds, 1 Assists, 2 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : -6

All kinds of statistics
The player who forgot to remove his mittens : H. Krause (Mighty Moose Rockets) : 5 Turnovers

Player targeted by the referees : K. McNulty (Mighty Moose Rockets), K. Knowles (Linndale), P. Lutz (Linndale), D. Komlósi (pintipv) : 6 Personnal Fouls

The iron-man : G. Locus (Miami Cleo), J. Fleurent (Mighty Moose Rockets), G. Chiodarelli (Mighty Moose Rockets), K. Brown (Lion Rebels), B. Lutz (Lion Rebels) : 48 Minutes

The shooter : C. McMahon (War Birds) : 9 Three points

The best performer : T. Armstead (Lion Rebels) : Rating : 16.5

The worst performer : G. Locus (Miami Cleo), J. McGill (Weather Society), M. Cornwell (Weather Society) : Rating : 6.0

All-Star Predictions Recap
So, all in all, besides the fact that I WAS LOUD WRONG by putting The Beer Bellys start point guard in the wrong division, infuriating Phils_Wings (I'm sure, because you know he's got such a short fuse ;)), I got a fair amount right...it looks like efficiency is used for a lot of this, but one or two of these I was pretty far off on (although, I will say, in my defense, it's not like I'm spending hours going over numbers and comparing players, for 97% of it I'm letting Buzzer Manager do the heavy lifting). In any event, here's what I got wrong and best I can tell as to why.

Mistake #1: Thinking The Beer Bellys were in the Big 8
Even though I botched the Big 8's starting PG with the eventual backup PG for the Great 8, I was still in the ballpark in that Juan Gilberto Segovia IS an all-star (so take that). If I had gotten the conference right, I would've had Juan starting over Dwayne based on Efficiency (9th vs 17th), although, from a PG standpoint, Nava is the better Assist creator. There's also a lot to be said for the #5 point guard in all Div III, so I'm probably wrong at the end of the day, especially since Segovia doesn't rank in the top 50 in the division.

This mistake also comes into play in my big proclamation that Isidre Homs (PF) was the biggest snub of the whole deal. It WAS the biggest snub because I am the biggest loser. Alas, the wrong was righted, except Ashkickers Toni Colomina is the odd man looking out, but by a solid 15k votes, I don't feel sorry for him.

Mistake #2: Swapping C. McMahon and P. Fasselli at SG
Phil has to be laughing at me, "You were off by nearly 60k votes, buddy! Kinda like when we play each other! HaHAhAHhAHHAhHAhskh!". But still, I feel strongly about this assessment and wonder if this is the bias of a "winning team" getting benefit of the doubt. Here's some fun comparison for you:
Player 1: 21.1 min/game | FG 48.6% | 3FG 41.8% | FT 73.7% | 2.1 AST/game | 14.2 PTS/game | 4th PTS/48 | 9th 3FG made | 10th FG%
Player 2: 33.0 min/game | FG 52.3% | 3FG 49.5% | FT 95.8% | 2.8 AST/game | 23.1 PTS/game | 1st PTS/48 | 2nd 3FG made | 3rd FG%

Player 1 is Fasselli and player 2 is McMahon. Now, granted, I'd guess if Fasselli was playing closer to 33 min/game, he'd probably have even better stats, making my dumb argument above null and void, but it's still fun to pretend!

Mistakes (Continued)
Mistake #3: Again, thinking that The Beer Bellys were in the Big 8 for backup SF
But I wasn't too far off - the "loser" in my predictions of Philly's Juljonas Glicas who seems deserving of the distinction, "Guy Who Got Left Off Accidentally". But on the Great 8 side, Sam Dickens took the spot of Bulvio Barrera in my rankings. Granted, we are talking backup SF, but in the grand scheme of things, Dickens doesn't rank in the top 20 in the league in average rating or efficiency, in fact, he doesn't rank in the top 10 in our division III.11 in any category. While Barrera's not much better (ranks 4th in 3FG%, but nothing else), he does rank 10th in efficiency and while his average rating is a full point less than Dickens, he does have a much better FG shooting percentage and is averaging almost 5 more points than Dickens. I'd take the 38-year-old Venezuelan any day (this season at least, after that, I'm dumping his ass).

Mistake #4: Backup Center in the Big 8
I had War Birds' Miloš Živanić as the backup C, but San Dominca's Allen Parrish beat him out by just over 4k votes (by far the closest race of the voting). And I don't get it. Živanić has a better FG%, averages 2 more rebounds and 1 more point per game. The only thing he does worse at is turning the ball over, which OK...but still, Živanić seems to be the better player. And not that rankings mean everything, but again, Parrish doesn't rank in any category in the top ten in our division. Živanić at least ranks in 5 categories (ok, ok, two of those are #3 in TO and #7 in TO/game). Still, I think he got robbed.

Mistake #5: Great 8 Backup SG
Mixed up Dan Donlon (pintipv) with Denis Minkinen, and honestly, I get it. Donlon is having a pretty good season, including being ranked in the top 25 in 3FG made in the USofA and 7th in all of Division 3 (#390 in the entire world). That being said, I don't have much of an argument for Minkinen.

Biggest Mistake of the Predictions
I hate to say it, because I'm an underdog fan, but I was really hoping that Cristiano Masetti (Weather Society) would make it. He does rank 2nd in PTS, PTS/game, GF made, FG attempted, 3FG attempted, and PTS/48 min along with 3rd in 3FG. He's also top 50 in PTS and PTS/game to go along with FG and 3FG made. Dude's a baller and while his FG%, especially for 3-pointers (here's looking at you Russell Westbrook), is lacking, I still think he deserves a shot. But it would've been his 8th all-star appearance (albeit his 1st in Div III)...So I guess I'm fine with him missing out.

Come on by The Keg, we’ve got free drinks to keep that buzz going for ya buddy. Just blame it on the beer…

Wait a second ... if you don't know? Then ... Aw hell here I was hoping you would somehow have an explanation for me on how it happened. Guess it'll one of the BB unsolved mysteries

Day 15 (Tuesday 14 June 2022) : Performances by (https://www.buzzer-manager.com)

Night results
Weather Society 73 - Mighty Moose Rockets 128
The Beer Bellys 83 - Lion Rebels 99
pintipv 100 - San Dominica Warriors 128
Gremlins 84 - Rip City Revival 92
The Ashkickers 104 - Seattle SuperSonicz 92
Żubr Białystok 103 - War Birds 91
Miami Cleo 67 - Philly Dribble 120
Dallas Bomskwad 49 - Linndale 110

Best collective performance of the evening
Points : 128 : Mighty Moose Rockets, San Dominica Warriors
Rebounds : 62 : Linndale
Assists : 42 : Mighty Moose Rockets
Steals : 15 : Linndale
Block Shots : 9 : Mighty Moose Rockets, Gremlins

Personal best performances of the evening
Points : 42 : N. Neochoritis (Rip City Revival)
Rebounds : 22 : B. Herron (War Birds)
Assists : 13 : G. Chiodarelli (Mighty Moose Rockets)
Steals : 4 : J. Julinš (Linndale), F. Alidori (San Dominica Warriors), D. Ðuric (Rip City Revival)
Block Shots : 4 : R. Peñalver (Gremlins), W. Chan Kiew (Gremlins)

Top 5 of the evening
Point Guard : G. Chiodarelli (Mighty Moose Rockets) (25 Points, 2 Rebounds, 13 Assists, 0 Steals, 1 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 32
Shooting Guard : D. Charles (Mighty Moose Rockets) (18 Points, 5 Rebounds, 9 Assists, 3 Steals, 3 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 31
Small Forward : J. Rushing (Seattle SuperSonicz) (28 Points, 6 Rebounds, 3 Assists, 0 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 28
Power Forward : W. Kofan (Mighty Moose Rockets) (26 Points, 18 Rebounds, 4 Assists, 1 Steals, 1 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 48
Center : J. Fleurent (Mighty Moose Rockets) (35 Points, 6 Rebounds, 1 Assists, 1 Steals, 2 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 32

MVP of the evening
W. Kofan (Mighty Moose Rockets) (26 Points, 18 Rebounds, 4 Assists, 1 Steals, 1 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 48

The bad performance of the evening
C. San Buenaventura (Weather Society) (1 Points, 0 Rebounds, 1 Assists, 0 Steals, 0 Block Shots)Y. Semiramis (The Beer Bellys) (0 Points, 5 Rebounds, 0 Assists, 0 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : -4

All kinds of statistics
The player who forgot to remove his mittens : D. Nava (Gremlins) : 7 Turnovers

Player targeted by the referees : Z. Fatik (Rip City Revival) : 6 Personnal Fouls

The iron-man : D. Santana (Miami Cleo), A. Gallucci (Miami Cleo), B. Herron (War Birds), D. Nava (Gremlins), K. Brown (Lion Rebels) : 48 Minutes

The shooter : C. Taylor (Weather Society), D. Donlon (pintipv) : 7 Three points

The best performer : W. Kofan (Mighty Moose Rockets) : Rating : 17.5

The worst performer : E. Hess (Miami Cleo) : Rating : 4.0

Week 8 Power Rankings
How terrible is All-Star Week, eh? So long and boring without that 2nd game! This week's rankings will show a team's current rank along with what their very first week's rank was. Without further ado.

1. Philly Dribble (2)
Looking back at my preseason predictions, boy was I LOUD WRONG about Phil_Wings' team. They've chosen the invisible superstar route to success this season and have been dominating the competition with only two losses on the season with a surprising upset to The Beer Bellys and a grind out fight against Gremlins. They, unfortunately, finally came to their end in their Cup aspirations, losing to the 13th ranked team in the US after winning 7 games in a row, including a 2-point upset of 68th ranked Beware of Dogs (though, looks like Dogs are going to relegate while Philly seems destined to promote, so maybe it was a fair fight). Looking at the rest of their schedule, unless Linndale or Rip City decide to take a go at them for some reason, I think they'll finish out the season 20-2 with an eye on the finals.

2. Linndale (6)
Arguably, one of the biggest surprises in our division this season is Speedtraps' group. They rolled into their promotion ranked 5057 in the world and are currently sitting at 3732. Along with their big world ranking leap, they've moved up in the US rankings starting at 235 and climbing all the way up to 174. They've put on an impressing display of efficiency both offensively and defensively, arguably only losing to teams they should have lost to (although, looking back at their first loss against Lion Rebels, I have to say that appears to have been an aberration). Forecasting the rest of their season, they should only lose one more, though there's potential for upset in some matchups. I think they'll be sitting at 2nd place in the Big 8.

3. The Ashkickers (3)
Admittedly a bit of a surprise with the standings looking the way they have been, but according to highly sophisticated calculations (lots of really difficult maths), Tylormade's crew slates in at #3 so far, though this is quite close between them, Gremlins, and Rip City. Things are proving to hold steady in terms of efficiencies. Aside from a somewhat surprising 3-point loss to San Dominica Warriors on the road, they held their own in interconference play and find themselves facing any easy matchup, followed by an intriguing game against Żubr Białystok. But with a comfortable point differential and a two-game lead in the standings, I doubt they have anything to worry about, even with a loss.

4. Gremlins (1)
Gizmo probably feels like a Dallas Cowboys fan reading this, though in fairness to them, there's probably justified rage boiling under their skin, landing at 4th. They have a higher EFFG rating than The Ashkickers, and a slightly worse OPP EFFG, but what is intriguing is the Top end of the OPP EFFG rankings are very tight, with 5 teams vying for 3rd-7th separated by only 4 points. But this week, this is how the cookie crumbles. This isn't to say that they're not to be feared. I'm pretty confident in saying that it looks like it will by Philly & Gremlins in the final and Gizmo's squad has already proved they can beat them at least once, so it should be a 3-game final, from the looks of it.

5. Rip City Revival (8)
JBogroff's team has been coming on strong, currently riding a seven-game winning streak since falling to The Ashkickers a month ago, including an impressive defeat of Gremlins at home this week behind Nicky Nay Nay's 42 points. They're looking tough enough, I've got them nearly winning out, falling only to Philly, but even that I'm hesitant to state (but there, I said it). They've moved up 5 spots in EFFG compared to the first week of the season and another 3 spots in OPP EFFG, pushing them up to 5th with a good argument to be made for higher.

Last edited by Baine at 6/15/2022 1:39:58 PM