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2013 NCAA Tournament Surprise Picks

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239072.40 in reply to 239072.39
Date: 3/19/2013 11:49:04 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
111111
I have said this all season about Miami. The ACC had a down year, and that coincided with them having a very experienced squad. This is a 4th place team in a typical ACC, but they caught a break having the team they do in this season. I think they get exposed in the tourney.



Not to mention despite the 5th and 6th year seniors, and Larkin, etc. this is the first NCAA berth for Miami in a good while

This Post:
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239072.41 in reply to 239072.21
Date: 3/19/2013 11:56:47 AM
Michigan Blasters
IV.28
Overall Posts Rated:
2222
Second Team:
Clown Cafe
I'm a die hard Michigan fan but.... THEM BOYS NEED TO REBOUND. REBOUND. REBOUND. Play some D for.... SAKE! If they can do that, they can make it to the Final game honestly, but they need to get their act together, box out and get the board, don't get out rebounded by 20. Trey Burke can't do everything!!


And on top of every thing you said, work on their free throws.

This Post:
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239072.42 in reply to 239072.38
Date: 3/19/2013 1:22:46 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
244244
It was hard for me to admit I know... But they're the team least likely to lay an egg in my opinion. I feel similarly to you on Miami, OSU just doesn't have the firepower in my opinion, Louisville just needs one shot happy game from Russ Smith to be gone, Kansas has that game against TCU, Gonzaga is mostly untested, and Georgetown seems similar to Louisville with Otto Porter.

And everybody below the 2 line just hasn't shown the consistency throughout the season for me to pick them. Plenty of teams could win it this season, but IU has got to be the favourite in my opinion.

This Post:
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239072.43 in reply to 239072.42
Date: 3/19/2013 1:30:15 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
367367
My problem with IU is that they are an offensive team. KenPom shows that statistically, defensive teams rule the tournament. In a one game elimination tournament where you need six straight wins, you just cant rely on your shooters to play well consistently against good talent under that kind of pressure. Teams that have historically had tournament success are teams with great defense, and the shot makers to hit buckets in close games. Your Louisvilles and Butlers and Michigan States. Slow down the game, make it about the final two minutes, and out-execute. Thats how you win in the tourney

This Post:
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239072.44 in reply to 239072.42
Date: 3/19/2013 1:35:45 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
6060
This side of Wisconsin, Ohio State has the easier bracket to get to the final four....Wisconsin is their only threat, and if the badgers get past Oh St......they can beat anyone with their goon style defense and slow tempo game, they are the most physical team in the country IMO for tournament play. Personally I don't think the hurricanes have ben tested to much this year and that includes UNC, whereas the Big 10....how many are in the top 20?
That is not to gloat, just the facts.
BTW.....Where is Michigan State.....never ever count them out!

This Post:
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239072.45 in reply to 239072.44
Date: 3/19/2013 1:39:48 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
137137
Yeah...I think the Big 10 is probably in for a strong tournament. So many stacked teams.


This Post:
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239072.46 in reply to 239072.45
Date: 3/19/2013 1:41:07 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
367367
Agreed

From: A-Dub
This Post:
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239072.47 in reply to 239072.31
Date: 3/19/2013 1:50:17 PM
Upsyndrome
IV.21
Overall Posts Rated:
707707
Second Team:
Upsyndrome II
I can see Cal over UNLV. The game well be played in San Jose wich is basically a home game for Cal. Not only that, last time these two teams played, Rebels won on a Buzzer-beater shot. The bears still feel like they let that game slip, have some bad blood, and are determined they can beat UNLV. Of course Crabbe & Cobbs will need to step it up, and Cal will need to find a way to stop the man child --Anthony Bennett-- this time around. But I like the odds.

"You will lose." -Ivan Drago
This Post:
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239072.48 in reply to 239072.43
Date: 3/19/2013 2:00:21 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
274274
Yea, but kenpom also has IU in the top 20 defensive teams (19th this morning). They're not a lock down defensive team (although Oladipo certainly is) and can certainly have some strange lapses and terrible zone defense, but all in all they are a very good defensive team.

And while I'm not knocking defense as being important, I don't think it's as important as offense anymore. Of those teams you've listed, Michigan State is only to have won a national championship since 2000 (Mich State in 2000). They've had success, sure, but they've haven't gone all the way consistently. I would argue that the teams that go all the way are the ones that have tons of options on the offensive end and can score like crazy, and have that paired with a good, but maybe not top 10, defense.

Again, HOOSIERS! haha

This Post:
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239072.49 in reply to 239072.43
Date: 3/19/2013 2:06:53 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
244244
First off I'm not a huge fan of Ken Poms numbers.

IU is an offensive team, but it's not like they can't play defense, by Ken Pom they rank #19 in the nation defensively.

Teams in the top 20 of both:
IU #1 Off, #19 Def
Gonzaga- #3 Off, #14 Def
Florida #5 Off, #2 Def
Pitt #9 Off, #17 Def
Ohio St #14 Off, #6 Def
Louis #15 Off, #1 Def

Just outside: Michigan St, Kansas, Duke, Syracuse, Miami

And really KenPom supports Defense?
12 Kentucky #2 Off, #9 Def
11 Uconn #16 Off, #14 Def
10 Duke #2 Off, #8 Def
09 UNC #1 Off, #16 Def
08 KU #2 Off, #1 Def
07 UF #1 Off, #12 Def
06 UF #2 Off, #5 Def
05 UNC #1 Off, #5 Def
04 Uconn #4 Off, #5 Def
03 Cuse #11 Off, #19 Def

Yeah, nobody who can't play defense wins the national title, but Offense seems to be the more important factor to me.

This Post:
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239072.50 in reply to 239072.49
Date: 3/19/2013 2:17:57 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
32293229
Yeah, nobody who can't play defense wins the national title, but Offense seems to be the more important factor to me.


Clearly, the key is being in the top five in both because that's what supports what I want to happen and life is too short to let statistics rule the day except when, of course, those statistics support what we want.

Sadly, I don't see Florida pulling it out. The "bad in close games" thing is a little overplayed - they were able to come back from double-digits down against 'bama just the other day, but because they ended up winning by more than 10 it means less? On the other hand, the part of that flaw which is apparent is that there's nobody at all that is a go-to guy late, and they've had some serious sloppiness late in halves against the press.

Or, to sum it up perfectly: Bradley Beal came one year too early.

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