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Salary increase - New salary formula

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136516.178 in reply to 136516.177
Date: 3/29/2010 11:06:28 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
4545
I think forrest mention that he looked into the top33 countries!

That means you will most probably don't have bots relegating from Division I

This Post:
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136516.179 in reply to 136516.178
Date: 3/29/2010 11:08:09 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
154154
I think forrest mention that he looked into the top33 countries!

That means you will most probably don't have bots relegating from Division I

Where? Oh I see it. this forums is not friendly to post happening meanwhile you editing your post or posting a new post.

Last edited by docend24 at 3/29/2010 11:09:09 AM

This Post:
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136516.180 in reply to 136516.179
Date: 3/29/2010 11:09:37 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
4545
This Post:
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136516.181 in reply to 136516.173
Date: 3/29/2010 11:12:29 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
154154
of the top 33 most populated countries in buzzerbeater (country 33 has 414 users), meaning 33*4=132 division 1 promotions, there were 60 subsequent demotions, making it a 55% survival rate, which i agree is lower... but also is just about where you thought it should be, and where we think it should be too.

fwiw.. in the top 10 countries, it was 16 demotions.. or 60% survival rate.

Ok then I missed that as we were posting simultanouesly. I still think there is an unreasonable effort to make gaps in the future.)

Another thing to analyse could how much those Divs actaully changes and how much teams were "always there" like in last 5 season in a row. But I'm not asking you to do that.

This Post:
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136516.182 in reply to 136516.181
Date: 3/29/2010 11:17:25 AM
1986 Celtics
IV.30
Overall Posts Rated:
88
I could look at that.. but actually, if your model of what is correct is 4 random teams are demoted every season that means either parity if you are an optimist, or means there is no effect of manager skill on the game.

meaning if there is a lot of turnover, how could it be possible that someone is actually "good" at this game in any meaningful way?

This Post:
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136516.183 in reply to 136516.182
Date: 3/29/2010 11:26:51 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
154154
I meant it more liek probability to actually catch up with top team of the country.

We are looking at numbers in our country and have a bit different resultzs I guess it is a local thing then.

This Post:
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136516.184 in reply to 136516.182
Date: 3/29/2010 11:34:04 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
4545
It seems that my point about the big8 vs great8 was missing during this big "conversation".

I still would like to see some reaction on that: (136516.170)

This Post:
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136516.185 in reply to 136516.183
Date: 3/29/2010 11:39:09 AM
1986 Celtics
IV.30
Overall Posts Rated:
88
but your country only has 4 teams promote to d1 every season...

so if you work out the statistics, if you thought each team had a 60% chance of demoting

2.56 % of the time you would see all 4 demote
15.36 % of the time you would see 3 of 4 demote
34.56 % of the time you would see 2 of 4 demote
34.56 % of the time you would see 1 of 4 demote
12.96 % of the time you would see 0 of 4 demote

So really... none of those possibilities are really that crazy to imagine... except maybe all 4 going down has a p value of less than .05, the weakest test science would accept as significant.

This Post:
00
136516.186 in reply to 136516.185
Date: 3/29/2010 12:03:40 PM
BC Hostivař
První liga
Overall Posts Rated:
13171317
Second Team:
Jirkov
Maybe it's really local think for Czech republic, but it really looks hard for promoted teams to establish in Div I. We have in our Div I - 9 team playing Div I for 5 of more seasons in a row and 3 other teams which missed only one season for last 5 seasons, so it's 12 very well established team and 1 more which demoted last season after 9 seasons in Div I.

Season 11 - 3 of 4 demoted
Season 10 - 2 of 4 demoted
Season 9 - 3 of 4 demoted
Season 8 - 3 of 4 demoted
Season 7 - 2 of 5 demoted

It looks our country find some equlibrum since season 8 and it's really hard to fight against well-settled teams.

Last edited by rwystyrk at 3/29/2010 12:03:57 PM

This Post:
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136516.187 in reply to 136516.170
Date: 3/29/2010 12:32:32 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
4040
I propose that every season the teams of the same division are shuffled and you get new conferences every season.

I think this will not happen, because during the seasons are teams making rivals between themselves and other tiny things which is "you were above me last time" are creating something like conference character. The idea you propose would ruin everything.

This Post:
00
136516.188 in reply to 136516.186
Date: 3/29/2010 1:07:58 PM
1986 Celtics
IV.30
Overall Posts Rated:
88
So running the numbers on that, it looks to be about a 1.5 sigma effect, or you'd expect fewer teams to promote only 3.25% of the time... so that's approaching significant.

Of course you can argue that given that there are ~30-100 countries in the game, you should expect to see an event like this somewhere in buzzerbeater.. 1/100 being 1%, 1/30 being 3.3%. So in that context its not that unexpected.

Its also the case that such an analysis doesn't really take into account local variations.. like the possibility that this group of 9 is actually much better at the game and therefore deserves to be in perennially.

All in all the difference between the most likely result 12-13 teams survive, versus 8, is only 4 teams over those 5 seasons. So its not really a big difference.

Last edited by BB-Forrest at 3/29/2010 1:14:47 PM

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