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Economics?

I know that for me, several times I've "gone big."

Hopefully you can get what you need and stay competitive. It sure is a lot of fun having your around. As much as I'd love to promote. . . I also just love being an a league where guys are active.

For sure - makes it a lot more fun to be in an engaging league!

Season 58 All Star Results
Alrighty, well, all told, I'm happy to report my predictions for the all star game were across the board pretty solid, missing out on only three predictions, all back up positions - one in the Big 8 and two in the Great 8. Here's what I got wrong:

Big 8 Backup SF
I swear I wasn't favoring my wunderkid Kurt Brown by slotting him in, but let's look at the numbers and why Philly's Juljonas Glicas deserves the slot over Brown.

Efficiency:
Brown - 18.7
Glicas - 17.4

Rating:
Brown - 11.2
Glicas - 14.2

Statline::
FG%
Brown - 48.6
Glicas - 48.2

3FG%
Brown- 43.8
Glicas - 47.9

AST
Brown - 3/game
Glicas - 2.5/game

PTS
Brown - 22.4/game
Glicas - 15.6/game

REB
Brown - 4.6/game
Glicas - 4.9

All in all, these dudes are basically the same, excluding Rating, and here's where I think the difference lies: Glicas has averaged 29.5 min/game in 13 games, whereas Brown has averaged 43.1/game (30.5 at SF). So, all things being equal, the only reason Brown scores more points is because of the 13 more minutes per game AND he's not rated as well. Glicas definitely deserves the slot here.

Big 8 Backup PG
My next error was basically overlooking Hustlas' Suen Jun Hoi, Reece's early season monster pickup. I had put Harvey Griffin in there based on his efficiency - looking back at the list, I think I just missed Suen Jun Hoi, who has averaged 21.4 EFF good for 12th after 13 games, while Harvey is at 20 EFF. Interestingly, both players have only played a combined 16 games for the season.

Big 8 Backup SF
Randell Tobin (Tachenko) unseated my prediction of The Ashkicker's Graziano Gattoni, who admittedly was pulled from the seat of my pants based on his (now) 16th highest average rating on the season. But his efficiency is a "mere" 12.9. Tobin, however, just missed out on the top 20 efficiency rating in the league, holding onto a 19.4 at this point in the season. But, for fun and games, let's take a look at their statline comparisons:

Statline::
FG%
Player 1 - 43.2%
Player 2 - 48.3%

3FG%
Player 1 - 37.3%
Player 2 - 34%

AST
Player 1 - 2.7/game
Player 2 - 2.3/game

PTS
Player 1 - 23.5/game
Player 2 - 18.7/game

REB
Player 1 - 5.6/game
Player 2 - 3.8/game

Player 1 averages 33 min/game, while player two averages just under 35 min/game. Who are you choosing?

If you said Player 1 (Tobin), you'd be right according to what happened. And, I think that's probably the better pick at the end of the day, but all in all, they're relatively close.

3-Point Contest Results
I was pretty close on this one, but missed on two guesses: I had Paul Lutz (49% for Linndale) and Lorenzo Rojas (47.6% for The Ashkickers). They were replaced by Krzysztof Huk (43.9% on 82 shots in 31.9 MPG for the Hustlas [and if I never have to spell his name again, I'll be happy!]) and Juan Gilberto Segovia (47.6% on 105 shots in 37.7 MPG for The Beer Bellys).

I'll settle for being wrong on those two, who are VOLUME shooters, with the two of them combining for 15.8 shots per game from behind the arc, while my two predicted players only shoot 10 per game combined.

Any thoughts on which team will win tomorrow night's matchup? Always seems like a carnival game to me - never certain who is going to win!

Beer Belly's are not happy with the selections this year. Segovia is the league scoring leader with an avg/rating of 13.0, shooting 43.7% and 47.6% from 3 along with 1.3 steals, 4.6 rebounds and 3.5 assists and he is a backup?

Rojas and Varpukevicius are great players, but not nearly the same stats. Their stats are also a ton easier to achieve since they are on strong teams, while I blew up my roster (stupid mistake) and Segovia has single handedly kept us somewhat in the relegation race. Varpukevicius shooting %s are horrible comparatively speaking, and he's barely even scored much the past couple weeks.

League officials and press who voted for the All-Star line-ups are officially cut off from any of our specialty brews and bourbon club. Nothing but Miller High Life and Trulys for those idiots the rest of the season.

"I did this, it's my fault," says Hustlas coach John Walton. "I over thought it, and so after constant back and forth thinking, I went with an overly aggressive tempo, but wanted to change it back to normal, but never got to it. I was busy checking on the players and then taking my wife to the emergency room. By the time that it was near game time, I forgot, had to prepare for the game. Well, Maine did the same as us with aggressiveness. But I had a plan for that, even in the loss. Our motto has been don't do something that will jeopardize you the next game. And I'm afraid I did. I never changed our game plan for our BBM game since the loss of players, and on top of that, the team was weary. The plan was to play inside. We may have won a close one even with us being weary. But I never got to it. And now, we won't be ready for Philly Dribble either."

Bobby Sparks, Hustlas GM looks at the sad John Walton. "You guys had a good run this year John. I expected this. It's not your fault. You have Philly Dribble, you will lose that one, no bones about it. Just beat who you are supposed to beat. The upper teams, don't worry too much about it. I'm trying to keep this team together. But we can't sale anyone while we are seeing other people sale for ridiculous amounts. If we can't sale, then the team will be exploded and we will have to start over. So just do what you can with what you have."

"Okay boss. I'll do my best," says John. He knows even if he does, and all that the GM says come to pass he may not be the coach any longer."

Season 58 Midseason Final Predictions - Part One
It's just over the half-way point of the season and with most* of the transfers having settled down, though Hustlas and The Ashkickers still appear to be trying to sell off some players, so I decided to revisit/revamp my preseason predictions based on salaries for the end of the season.

These predictions are based on current salary statistics for the league, with total salary being the most highly weighted, followed by Top 6-10 salaries, and then Top 5, Top 8, and Top 10, and average salary rankings are weighted equally. Total those ranking position points up and divide by the number of categories gathered gives me my ranking system. Except! With the season more than half-way played out, to try and balance things out, I've included an additional parameter that takes into account a team's standings so far. Once again, not very scientific, but someone has to be the idiot putting these things out! Without further ado!

Current League Leaders in Salary
1. Hustlas - $434,083 (this does take into account the pending sale of Layton, but doesn't consider Goran Denkovic who doesn't have a bid as of this writing. Previous league leader was Tachenko who shed $45k in salary and two players. Hustlas has only 9 players rostered and wasn't in the top 3 at the start of the season (previously 6th). Early season addition Suen Jun Hoi makes up 35% of their total salary expenses and has been a welcome pairing with Sirmantas Legkauskas for a combined 44 PPG on 55% shooting from the field.
2. Tachenko ($384,787) replaces Rip City Revival at second on this list with C Richard Mason occupying a whopping 49% of their salary. Mason is dominating with 16/16 PTS/REB/Game this season.
3. Rip City ($350,467) knocks Linndale out of the top three. Nikos Neochoritis is the lynchpin for this crew (with his 100K salary) being responsible for a fifth of their points and a tenth of their rebounds/assists on the season.

In the division, teams average $251K (down $6K from the start of the season) in salary with $250k being the split between the top 8 and bottom 8 (though, it is worth pointing out Mighty Moose Rockets being a full $195k below that mark).

Current League Leaders in Starting 5
The top 5 highest players list mirrors the overall salary list:
1. Hustlas - $382,682 - 88% of total rostered salary.
2. Tachenko - $347,772 - 90% of total rostered salary.
3. Rip City - $282867 - 80% of team's total salary.

Overall, the 16 teams average $191k (up 7k) for top 5 paid players with only 6 teams averaging more than $209k and two teams averaging less than $69k.

Current League Leaders in Assumed Top Bench Players (Top 6-10)
1. San Dominica Warriors - $85,781 ($17.2k per player)
2. Philly Dribble - $80,530 ($16.1k per player)
3. Linndale - $76413 ($15.3k per player)

San Dom swapped spots with Linndale on this list, while Philly moved up two spots to second and former #2 Hustlas dropped to 7th. Teams still average $55k in this grouping of salaries with four teams averaging more thank $80k and 5 teams averaging less than $40k.


Last edited by Baine at 9/16/2022 1:45:23 PM

Season 58 Midseason Final Predictions - Part Two
Season 58 Final Ranking Predictions
As I mentioned, I gave the highest weight to total salaries, the second tier weight to 6-10 salaries, and then the base weight rating to top 5, top 8, top 10, and average salary rankings, totaled those up and then divided by 6 to get these rankings, then, finally, taking into account season records to even it out a bit.

16. Mighty Moose Rockets (formerly 13th) - I thought they might try to retool this season, but Hutch44 is destined for relegation, unless they make some late season pickups. Midseason ranking score of 0.00.
15. Is This Heaven? (16th) - They're not the only team to benefit from MMRs firesale, but they did at least ellicit a win out of what looked like a no win season. Midseason ranking score of 0.39.
14. The Lone Wolf (15th) - lonewolf8 benefits just a bit more from MMRs tanking, solely by being in the same conference, thus giving them a "shot" at a relegation series, though they do have a matchup against Is This Heaven tomorrow night to improve the win column by one. Midseason ranking score of 0.63.
13. The Beer Bellys (8th) - selling off $30k in salary leaves thatguy treading relegation waters, hoping for a good matchup come season's end. Midseason ranking score of 4.3.
12. 2 percent (9th) - 2 percent actually dropped $11k in salary from the start and while they've won out their games against the worst teams in the league, they haven't been able to pull one off against the next tier despite being ranked 9th in total salary still. Thanks to their 3 wins, they get a midseason ranking score of 4.65.
11. Carolina Rebels (14th) - They've proven resilient and find themselves in 5th place in the Big 8 after facing most of the Great 8 - they boosted their salary total by about $25k to find themselves competitive in this middle tier - thanks to their win/loss record, their mid-season rank score is 8.86.
10. Lion Rebels (5th) - Woof. After selling off Byron Lutz (whose having a splendid season in Italy's DIV.IV) and retooling with some new trainees, this season hasn't been what it could have been, but much like others who started out the season in the middle tier, it was determined that $$ was a priority and the likelihood of the current roster developing into true contenders with a chance to perform at a decent level in DIV.II was relatively low. A $42k selloff leaves them here with a 10.31 midseason ranking score.
9. Miami Cleo (11th) - the next team to move up this list, Miami stayed pat and has been streaky throughout the season. They still have a shot to make the playoffs in the current standings with their duo of Varpukevicius and Maurin. They enter the latter half of the season with a midseason ranking score of 10.71.
8. Żubr Białystok (12th) - whitestok was certain they were going to face relegation, and while they might still be the case, they're in a good spot to retain their place in DIV.III. An increase of nearly $15k puts them right in the middle, improving on the early season prediction. Thanks to a winning record, they receive a midseason grade of 13.61.


Last edited by Baine at 9/16/2022 1:47:31 PM

Season 58 Midseason Final Predictions - Part Three

Season 58 Final Ranking Predictions - continued
8. Żubr Białystok (12th) - whitestok was certain they were going to face relegation, and while they might still be the case, they're in a good spot to retain their place in DIV.III. An increase of nearly $15k puts them right in the middle, improving on the early season prediction. Thanks to a winning record, they receive a midseason grade of 13.61.
7. San Dominica Warriors (10th) - continuing the string of "mover-uppers", San Dom has proven their defense resilient and find themselves well suited to make the playoffs after adding an additional $25k in salary for the season. Their high Point Differential will probably be vital as we finish out the season and they end up with a 25.07 midseason grade.
6. Tachenko (2nd) - Despite their 2nd highest salary and dominant interior, they've dropped several games (somewhat surprisingly), proving that bench play can be important in staying at the top of the heirarchy. Their 8-5 record brings them a midseason grade of 37.87.
5. Linndale (3rd) - Dropping a couple of places thanks to their salary retooling, they've still shown to be adept and navigation matchups and tactics to remain solidly in line for a playoff spot - combined with their 9 wins, they receive a midseason rankings score of 54.38.
4. The Ashkickers (7th) - Missing out on the top seed in the Great 8 by a measly 5 points, The Ashkickers prove once again that its not the dominant one salary that is most meaningful, but a collective effort from the group that seems more efficient. Their trio of Sesamo, Rjoas, and Gattoni combine to make up 66% of their scoring. They have a midseason grade of 111.83.
3. Hustlas (6th) - the leader in salary costs, while striving to cut it back, has been both surprising and welcomed in a conference that started the season seeming a bit weaker than the opposing side. A lot could change between now and the end of the season, especially if they successfully sell off Denkovic. Thanks to their record and salary, their midseason ranking score is 150.33.
2. Philly Dribble (4th) - Phil_Wings actually ended up shedding some salary ($11k or so), but remains a juggernaut in the Big 8, losing only to Rip City. More and more, it's looking like the Big 8 Semi-Finals may be the matchup of the season, but there's plenty of room for error and surprise as we wind the season down. A midseason ranking score of 270 lands them in second.
1. Rip City Revival - Jbogoroff's retooled roster has been dominant and a bit too clever at times (see their lone loss to Hustlas) as they've torched most of the teams in the league this season. Nikky Nay isn't quite playing to his MVP-caliber season from a year ago, but as a whole, they're a better team. Thanks to their 11 wins, they receive a 306 midseason score and (Spoiler Alert) appear to be the favorites to move back into DIV.II.

Last edited by Baine at 9/16/2022 1:48:45 PM

Season 58 Midseason Final Predictions - Part Four
Conference Standings
Big 8
1. Rip City Revival
2. Philly Dribble
3. Linndale
4. San Dominica Warriors
5. Lion Rebels
6. Carolina Rebels
7. The Lone Wolf
8. Mighty Moose Rockets

Great 8
1. Hustlas
2. The Ashkickers
3. Tachenko
4. Żubr Białystok
5. Miami Cleo
6. 2 Percent
7. The Beer Bellys
8. Is This Heaven?

Playoff/Relegation Predictions
Great 8 Playoffs
Żubr Białystok 94 vs. Hustlas 103
The Ashkickers 93 vs. Tachenko 87

Great 8 Semi-Final Matchup
The Ashkickers 104 vs. Hustlas 105 (in Overtime)

Big 8 Playoffs
San Dominica Warriors 81 vs. Rip City Revival 88
Linndale 88 vs. Philly Dribble 101

Big 8 Semi-Final Matchup
Philly Dribble 91 vs. Rip City Revival 86

Relegation Matchups
Lion Rebels over The Beer Bellys in three
Carolina Rebels over 2 percent in three
Miami Cleo over The Lone Wolf in two

Season 58 Championship
Philly Dribble over The Ashkickers in three.

Big differences in playoff/relegation preseason predictions:
- The Beer Bellys don't make the playoffs and instead end up being relegated by Lion Rebels (who also don't make the playoffs)
- Tachenko AND Rip City don't make the Finals
- Carolina flips the script and relegates 2 percent instead of the other way around
- San Dominica AND Żubr Białystok make the playoffs instead of facing off in relegation

Best of luck the rest of the season, Gents!

Last edited by Baine at 9/16/2022 1:44:18 PM

Pio Reina here outside of the Linndale locker room with Paul Lutz. Paul, how's the team feeling about this one?

Lutz: It's weird not having Coach in here talking to us before the game. It's been weird not having him at practice. It just ain't right. Everything is off.

Pio: Has anyone spoken to Coach?

Lutz: Yeah, we have. We have a video chat with him everyday before practice. He tells us what we're working on, and the assistants and the Point Guards make sure we get that done.

Pio: Coach has pretty much gone media silent. I'm not asking if he's told you or the team any news on how's he recovering or when he'll be back.

Lutz: Coach said you wouldn't ask! Coach said he'll let everyone know during the game tonight. I think he's supposed to be on the announce team tonight.

Pio: Indeed he is! Any word on what we can expect from the team tonight?

Lutz: I can't tell you any specifics of course, but you know how coach is all about the team and getting the young guys ready for the postseason. I'd pay attention to who doesn't dress. That might tell you something about that other part no one has been talking about.

Pio: Thanks Paul, and good luck tonight!

Lutz: Thanks Pio!

Pio: That's it from the locker room; back to Happy Ourer in studio!

Happy Ourer with the WINO radio Basketball Network, and we see Linndale up on the Ashkickers 57-48 at the half. Pio what are you seeing so far?

Pio: Well, Happy if I'm Linndale, I'm concerned about only 8 steals tonight against 6 turnovers. On the other hand we've caused 10 turnovers and the Ashkickers have 4 steals. However, the battle on the boards are practically even, with the Ashkickers up 27-26 there. Linndale has to force turnovers and get steals, but the need to do that lessens if they can keep things even on the boards. & of 13 shooting from behind the arc looks good. One thing to watch is Paul Lutz in the second half. He usually has a spurt where he takes over the game for a bit, but hasn't had that yet. That despite 8 points, 7 rebounds, 3 dimes, a steal and 3 blocks. Another concern is tha lack of free throw attempts. Ashkickers have a 15 to 2 advantage there.

Happy: Pio, any word from Coach?

Pio: Not yet but we will break it live when it happens.

Happy: Thanks, Pio! Happy Ourer of WINO radioand the Linndale Basketball radio broadcast, and we'll send it back to the game!