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Season 59 All Star Predictions - Part Two
Flyers, Snubs, and other Drubs
Isidre Homs, The Beer Bellys fantastic PF is the biggest snub with his 7th overall EFF losing out to Klin and Cheatle this season. Shortly behind him, another PF, Philadelphia Spartans Gilberto Romão missed the boat as well (21.6 EFF - 10th). On the Big 8 side, Linndale's PF Nick Guevara missed out (19.3 EFF - 12th). Others receiving votes: Ashkickers' Toni Colomina (PF), Motor City Waddupdoe's Paul Cater (C), and Geoffray Locus from Miami (C).

Admittedly, EFF is weighted toward the big men (which is what makes it a bit harder to project guards/small forwards in this system), but after Fasselli (see below), Kyle Knowles from Linndale missed out with his 7th best AR ranking, as did Hustlas Robertas Oblacinskas (8th), and Oscar Reine of The Ashkickers (9th) to round out the top ten AR ranked players.
From the Efficiency side of things, Linndale's Center Mikhail Klimenkov is the biggest snub for the Big 8, with an EFF of 19.7, good for top 15 in EFF in the league. He's followed closely by Rip City's Center Elio Pagnini with a 19.1 EFF, good for 20th on the list so far this season.

In terms of "flyers" I took, I put Max-Phillip Woesler in place of his everyday backup Paride Fasselli. This one was fun because I ID'd Fasselli first for this spot, based on his third ranked 15.1 AR, but I couldn't very well give it to Fasselli whose played 218 minutes compared to Woesler whose played 346 minutes, or 58% more than his backup. Besides, Woesler's good! Or at least, Fasselli has less time on the floor to show his ineptitudes [if there are any].

Similar logic was applied to the back SF choice as the one above: San Dom's Granja has played 189 minutes at SF [192 at SG], and Baião has played 181 at SF [177 at SG] compared to Lutz, whose put in around 100 more minutes at the position and only played SF. Maybe it's not fair to Baião and Granza who boast a 16.7 & 17.3 EFF compared to Lutz's 12.6. But to that, I say, 'Life's not fair, eat a lemon.'

As far as team snubs, I feel like this is spread pretty evenly between the best teams, with one or two entries sneaking in there (Armstead and Riggins). I always enjoy getting to spot a bad team's top player like we saw last season with 2 percent slipping in there with Paulo Mari Acuña. They were 3-10 at the time of the break (and went on to finish a somewhat respectable 8-14). But this season, aside from my miserable team and whitestok's struggles, nothing like that really sticks out. I suppose Tylormade has a case to be made for his group having the best record and only two representatives in my projection.

3-Point Contest Predictions
For the 3-point competition it seems to me that you have to have at least 50 attempts on the season, so I'm taking the top 6 3-point percentage shooters who've shot at least 48 shots (you'll see why I chose 48 in a moment), which excludes the following "sharp" shooters thus far:
Miguel Tercero - San Dominica - 51.7% on 29 attempts
Niko Motturi - Lion Rebels - 46.4% on 28 attempts
Domantas Apvinis - Żubr Białystok - 45.5% on 22 attempts
Luís Alberto Baião - San Dominica - 43.9% on 41 attempts

So, here are my guesses:
Juljonas Glicas - Philly Dribble - 54.2% on 48 attempts
Fabian Carrillo - Lion Rebels - 49.1% on 53 attempts
Mario Granja - San Dominica - 45.3% on 53 attempts
Juan Gilberto Segovia - The Beer Bellys - 43.4% on 53 attempts
Lorenzo Rojas - Linndale - 41.5% on 53 attempts
Graniano Gattoni - The Ashkickers - 41.4% on 58 attempts

Interestingly both number of 3-point shots and percentages are lower this season. I wouldn't be surprised if Baiao and Damon Santana sneak into this group as well.

I'm sure the last game before the break will throw all of my predictions into chaos, but that's half the fun!

No respect...just win baby.

"Listen", Pio Reina says as he steps to the podium, "I don't want to hear about how well we played or didn't play. I don't want to hear it. We shot like trash. We didn't take care of the basketball. We weren't active enough on defense. This is not the Linndale basketball we expect to play. It is not acceptable, and to happen when the opponent isn't putting in the effort says a lot about us. Seems some folks have gotten a little complacent, and I don't like that. And still, this might have been our most complete game of the season. We have so much to clean up. We have to re-establish the inside game. We need to keep the guards trending in the right direction offensively. We have to clean up the turnovers. We have to do a better job of sharing the basketball. On the bright side, the bench looked solid. I'd like to see more of a scoring punch, but I imagine they might need a little time to gel and get that sorted. We have to be better with the three ball. We have so much to fix, and I won't rest until we do. We have a tough one coming up against the Ashkickers, and we end the season with a brutal stretch. We don't have a lot of time to get things together, so these guys better straighten up and fly right if they want to win a postseason game. That's all; I'm not taking questions tonight. There's too much work to do. Thanks for coming and good night."

Day 13 (Saturday 17 December 2022) : Performances by (https://www.buzzer-manager.com)

Night results
The Philadelphia Spartans 92 - Lion Rebels 109
Hustlas 155 - BOBBBSBURGS 60
Żubr Białystok 65 - Linndale 82
The Ashkickers 89 - San Dominica Warriors 85
The Beer Bellys 59 - Carolina Rebels 80
Miami Cleo 84 - Philly Dribble 75
Motor City Waddupdoe 50 - 209’s MostWanted 120
Sweaty Socks 67 - BKDogs 118

Best collective performance of the evening
Points : 155 : Hustlas
Rebounds : 67 : Hustlas
Assists : 34 : Hustlas
Steals : 13 : BKDogs
Block Shots : 15 : The Ashkickers

Personal best performances of the evening
Points : 33 : G. Sankoh (BKDogs)
Rebounds : 23 : G. Sankoh (BKDogs)
Assists : 12 : P. Matkowski (BKDogs)
Steals : 6 : Z. Elsneris (BKDogs)
Block Shots : 6 : T. Colomina (The Ashkickers)

Top 5 of the evening
Point Guard : P. Matkowski (BKDogs) (22 Points, 8 Rebounds, 12 Assists, 2 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 33
Shooting Guard : Z. Elsneris (BKDogs) (24 Points, 9 Rebounds, 3 Assists, 6 Steals, 4 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 38
Small Forward : M. Slakteris (Hustlas) (23 Points, 12 Rebounds, 1 Assists, 1 Steals, 1 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 32
Power Forward : M. Köhler (BKDogs) (27 Points, 18 Rebounds, 1 Assists, 0 Steals, 1 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 32
Center : G. Sankoh (BKDogs) (33 Points, 23 Rebounds, 7 Assists, 1 Steals, 2 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 55

MVP of the evening
G. Sankoh (BKDogs) (33 Points, 23 Rebounds, 7 Assists, 1 Steals, 2 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 55

The bad performance of the evening
J. Moore (BOBBBSBURGS) (6 Points, 1 Rebounds, 0 Assists, 0 Steals, 1 Block Shots) : Efficiency : -8

All kinds of statistics
The player who forgot to remove his mittens : I. Homs (The Beer Bellys), J. Moore (BOBBBSBURGS) : 6 Turnovers

Player targeted by the referees : M. Velasco (Philly Dribble), L. Baião (San Dominica Warriors), T. Hewitt (BOBBBSBURGS) : 6 Personnal Fouls

The iron-man : G. Locus (Miami Cleo), I. Gamón (Motor City Waddupdoe), M. Bowie (Motor City Waddupdoe), S. Hatch (Żubr Białystok), G. Sankoh (BKDogs), M. Köhler (BKDogs), Z. Elsneris (BKDogs), P. Matkowski (BKDogs), D. Švarplys (BKDogs) : 48 Minutes

The shooter : L. Rojas (The Ashkickers) : 6 Three points

The best performer : T. Armstead (Lion Rebels) : Rating : 18.0

The worst performer : K. Porter (Sweaty Socks), J. Moore (BOBBBSBURGS) : Rating : 1.5

Best performer is definitely flawed since Armstead only played 13 minutes before getting injured.

Season 59 All Star Results
Big difference from last season's all star predictions where I only got three wrong, all backups. I flat out missed 4 players, including one that ended up starting, and got 9 correct but in the wrong spot in terms of starters and backups, and only got 7 correct in the correct spots. Also, my backup SG analysis was TERRIBLE, apparently, so bad, that I'm trying to convince myself that I just missed seeing the one player (my player) in the list of stats. That's the only thing I can think.

As is tradition, here's a list of my inadequacies:

Big 8 Starting/Backup PG
I flip-flopped Velasco and Begley, trusting that Begley's top 15 EFF ranking would push him over the top, but Valesco's higher AR won out, resulting in 2300 more votes.

Big 8 Starting/Backup SG
With the least amount of 1st place votes for a position, Lion Rebels SG Fabián Carrillo slots in before my pic for starter and now backup, Mário Granja (San Dominica). This is where I took a flyer on Max-Phillip Woesler, even though his numbers are Just Fine. Much like I've done in the past, I think I just overlooked Carrillo, who has an AR of 14 and EFF of 16.5 compared to Granja's 12.5 & 17.3, respectively.

Big 8 Backup SF
I tried to squeeze Paul Lutz into this spot, probably because of the amount of press he gets from Speedtraps (the media will poison your mind!). I was not very surprised to see Luís Alberto Baião (San Dominica) slot in here. Even though he only played 6 games at SF, he deserves a spot at the table based on his overall numbers.

Big 8 Starting/Backup PF
Another flip-flop, with Jérome Bégin topping Hugo Espinosa in what seems like AR weighting a bit heavier than EFF. They're both very comparable, but Bégin, who ranks in the top 1000 in rebounds (898) and is 51st in the US of A in boards deserves the starting nod.

Big 8 Starting/Backup C
I swear I wasn't trying to defer by putting Armstead at back-up. By Efficiency ratings, that's the way it should be. Allen ranks in the top 10 in Div III.11 in rebounds, rebounds per game, FG% (3rd), defensive rebounds, offensive rebounds, and blocks. But Armstead is the top rated player in our league, #7 in our division, and 66th in the USA.

Great 8 Starting/Backup PG
While I had Lorenzo Rojas as the backup, I had no thought of Goran Denković (Hustlas) as even an outside looking in player. The 38-year-old is sporting a 13.0 AR with 11.9 PPG and is ranked 9th in assists and 4th in assist-to-turnover ratio. My pick, Damon Santana sports a 13.5 AR with 16.3 PPG and is #6 in 3FG% and 2nd in steals (top 25 in the division in steals). He's got an average efficiency of 14.8, while Rojas was 14.9, and Denković is 12.8. I don't understand it, but I do think Santana got robbed, losing by 10,000 votes. Stupid fans!

Great 8 Starting/Backup PF
I wasn't too far off on this one, and I'm also pretty surprised by this one. Slot Sławek Klin as starter, fine, but for Patrick Cheatle to miss out on this one was pretty surprising. Cheatle sports the highest EFF rating in the league, matches up in AR to Isidre Homs, and while he's averaging 3 points less per game than Homs, he's outrebounding him by three, grabbing 15.1 per game. Alas, the people have spoken.

3-Point Contest Results
Happy to report I nailed the six three-point contestants. My money's on Gattoni, though Segovia or Glicas could steal it.

Lastly, Juljonas Glicas (Philly Dribble) was the top vote getter with 118k, while Ashkicker's Lorenzo Rojas and Graziano Gattoni 2nd & 3rd with 115k each.

TV Interview 1 hour after Ashkicker vs Warriors game

Reporter: Coach tough loss. What went wrong tonight?

COACH S: What went wrong? Not much. I mean no matter what rankings may say that team is good one. One of the contenders for the league title this year if not THE contender. But we hung with them. It was a good slugfest for three quarters, we just couldn't keep up with them in the final stanza.

Reporter: You had no Marquez, you lose Granja in the 2nd half? How much did that factor in?

COACH S: Obviously losing a player like Mario is a huge blow. He was a big factor in our keeping the game so close. His defense on top of his obvious offensive contribution, but yeah that's a lot to make up when its suddenly gone. But don't take that as us sitting here saying we lost only because of that. We didn't get enough from Blanchet or East. Defensively while I think this may the lowest they've been held to all season. You guys may have to check on that. We still didn't do enough I think on that end. In critical games its all about the D.

On the other hand. We hung with them. There are more positives than negatives we can take from this loss so tip our hats off to Coach Tyler and his team. Hopefully we can get things together in our neck of the woods and see then in the playoffs

Pans out to see interview on tv in Coach Stephenson's office Monday morning

GORDON LONG: Well least Granja won't be out for long

COACH S: You don't know how glad I am to hear that.

GORDON LONG: You think we can take them next time?

COACH S: Sure, you never know really. Half the time in these kinds of game its Hector vs Achilles and it comes to the scales of the basketball gods. We both came out even on the analytical end. Who knows how it comes out if Granja stays on. But that's a tale for another day. Right now we catch our breath with All-Star and then we get back to work and get back in the win column against the Bellys.

GORDON LONG: I think that Samantha Swinson has the hots for you

COACH S: Shut up! Go pick up our lunch and we can hit the film room with the 2nd unit. We got a lot to figure out.

Last edited by Coach Stephenson at 12/19/2022 4:17:51 PM

we join the interview with Happy Ourer and Pio Reina in progress

Pio: "...so there are some things we have to get better at, but there are some things I have to get better at, and that's on me".

Happy: "What is different about the team, this season, that you've had a hard time adjusting to?"

Pio: "It's tough to get a read on a group given the consistent changes we've had. We did get younger and those kids need time to develop, but we have some vets that were also brought in to shore some weaknesses, and they need time to get acquainted with the team, and vice versa."

Happy: "Style wise, the team seems disjointed. What's keeping the froup from clicking on all cylinders?"

Pio: "That's a good question. The changes, partially. The consistent inconsistency of getting the bigs involved. The other team. The improved defense around the league. Really the biggest issue we have is we know what we want to be, but we don't know who we are quite yet. The only thing we know is we aren't where we want to be and the journey is ongoing."

Happy: "What's the biggest disappointment so far this season?"

Pio: "The biggest disappointment? The lack of consistency. We have some very good players ---and so do the other teams--- but we can't seem to get guys running optimally at once. It's both a curse and a blessing; I imagine if it's hard for us to figure out who to depend on it has to be hard for the other team to figure who the focal point is to stop."

Happy: "Let's talk players. Daniil Kamp. We've heard great things about him, but the production appears underwhelming. What's going on there?"

Pio: "Daniil has done a good job of integrating himself within the team. Maybe too good. HIs best game was when we moved him to the bench and had an explosion, but he was put back in the starting lineup because Paul Lutz was needed on the second unit more. There's been talk that Kamp is a better scorer; we see why that talk exists, but I think people forget Paul is still technically a point guard who's been forced out of position due to need. That he's accepted that challenge and excelled at it is a compliment to him. If you look, both have been very consistent in what they are doing. If anything is underwhelming, it would be the team's total performance, and that's unfair to put on one guy. Certainly, Kamp is not underwhelming at all."

Happy: "Who's the biggest surprise so far?

Pio: "Great question... Gyozo Czagala has been a model of consistency even while improving. Nick Guevara has just smashed it whether startiing or off the bench. Balthasar Gebhardt Datler has been a revelation, but I don't know that he's a surprise... I think Nick Guevara has been the biggest surprise. We knew he was a solid player, but once you see him over time you can appreciate him. He's better than you think or appreciate. He's the kind of player you think you'll get someone better, but if he gets hurt or you do move on from him, you wish you still had because he does so many things well, but if you just watch the counting stats you miss it, and when he does have a big game stat wise you wonder where's that been. He shows up tp work and just gets it done."

Happy: "More on our oneon one exclusive interview with Pio Reina after this break. When we return, Pio, I want to ask you about Coach, anda few other topics. We'll be back after the commercial break!"

Last edited by Speedtraps at 12/26/2022 11:04:28 PM

Day 14 (Saturday 24 December 2022) : Performances by (https://www.buzzer-manager.com)

Night results
Lion Rebels 89 - Hustlas 107
BOBBBSBURGS 39 - Żubr Białystok 148
Linndale 84 - The Ashkickers 94
San Dominica Warriors 85 - The Beer Bellys 93
Carolina Rebels 74 - Miami Cleo 88
Philly Dribble 104 - Motor City Waddupdoe 77
209’s MostWanted 123 - Sweaty Socks 43
BKDogs 74 - The Philadelphia Spartans 104

Best collective performance of the evening
Points : 148 : Żubr Białystok
Rebounds : 86 : Żubr Białystok
Assists : 36 : 209’s MostWanted, Żubr Białystok
Steals : 11 : 209’s MostWanted
Block Shots : 13 : Żubr Białystok

Personal best performances of the evening
Points : 44 : K. Brown (Lion Rebels)
Rebounds : 20 : P. Cheatle (Miami Cleo)
Assists : 13 : H. Šapiras (Żubr Białystok)
Steals : 3 : J. Glicas (Philly Dribble), M. Velasco (Philly Dribble), A. Ziółkowski (209’s MostWanted), I. Gamón (Motor City Waddupdoe), G. Cappilli (The Philadelphia Spartans), D. Kamp (Linndale), R. Singh (Lion Rebels), M. Grimm (Żubr Białystok), H. Šapiras (Żubr Białystok), H. Yee Tai (BKDogs)
Block Shots : 4 : D. Allen (Carolina Rebels), M. Grimm (Żubr Białystok), S. Hatch (Żubr Białystok)

Top 5 of the evening
Point Guard : P. Brito Gomes (209’s MostWanted) (21 Points, 6 Rebounds, 4 Assists, 2 Steals, 2 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 28
Shooting Guard : K. Brown (Lion Rebels) (44 Points, 1 Rebounds, 2 Assists, 1 Steals, 2 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 32
Small Forward : J. Glicas (Philly Dribble) (24 Points, 5 Rebounds, 6 Assists, 3 Steals, 2 Block Shots), A. Kričković (Żubr Białystok) (17 Points, 6 Rebounds, 7 Assists, 1 Steals, 1 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 25
Power Forward : T. Hinterleitner (Żubr Białystok) (23 Points, 14 Rebounds, 0 Assists, 0 Steals, 1 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 33
Center : S. Hatch (Żubr Białystok) (18 Points, 18 Rebounds, 3 Assists, 0 Steals, 4 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 42

MVP of the evening
S. Hatch (Żubr Białystok) (18 Points, 18 Rebounds, 3 Assists, 0 Steals, 4 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 42

The bad performance of the evening
J. Moore (BOBBBSBURGS) (6 Points, 1 Rebounds, 0 Assists, 0 Steals, 0 Block Shots)T. Hewitt (BOBBBSBURGS) (1 Points, 2 Rebounds, 0 Assists, 0 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : -11

All kinds of statistics
The player who forgot to remove his mittens : P. Cater (Motor City Waddupdoe), G. Ricker (Motor City Waddupdoe), J. Moore (BOBBBSBURGS) : 5 Turnovers

Player targeted by the referees : J. Bégin (San Dominica Warriors) : 6 Personnal Fouls

The iron-man : J. Dotson (Sweaty Socks), M. Bowie (Motor City Waddupdoe), S. Hollins (Lion Rebels) : 48 Minutes

The shooter : K. Brown (Lion Rebels) : 5 Three points

The best performer : C. Riggins (Żubr Białystok) : Rating : 18.5

The worst performer : J. Hein (BOBBBSBURGS) : Rating : 1.0

Day 15 (Tuesday 27 December 2022) : Performances by (https://www.buzzer-manager.com)

Night results
Żubr Białystok 102 - Lion Rebels 78
The Ashkickers 118 - BOBBBSBURGS 25
The Beer Bellys 93 - Linndale 99
Miami Cleo 67 - San Dominica Warriors 86
Motor City Waddupdoe 91 - Carolina Rebels 124
Sweaty Socks 73 - Philly Dribble 124
The Philadelphia Spartans 78 - 209’s MostWanted 112
Hustlas 122 - BKDogs 102

Best collective performance of the evening
Points : 124 : Philly Dribble, Carolina Rebels
Rebounds : 69 : The Ashkickers
Assists : 43 : Philly Dribble
Steals : 15 : The Ashkickers
Block Shots : 12 : The Ashkickers

Personal best performances of the evening
Points : 50 : K. Brown (Lion Rebels)
Rebounds : 23 : E. Öztün (The Ashkickers)
Assists : 13 : G. Denković (Hustlas)
Steals : 4 : P. Fasselli (Philly Dribble), M. Holm (The Ashkickers), M. San Miguel (The Ashkickers), H. Šapiras (Żubr Białystok), J. Esposito (Hustlas)
Block Shots : 4 : P. Cheatle (Miami Cleo), I. Homs (The Beer Bellys)

Top 5 of the evening
Point Guard : B. Coenen (Linndale) (46 Points, 2 Rebounds, 3 Assists, 1 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 38
Shooting Guard : C. McNutt (Żubr Białystok) (24 Points, 3 Rebounds, 1 Assists, 2 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 25
Small Forward : M. Jackson (Philly Dribble) (19 Points, 4 Rebounds, 5 Assists, 1 Steals, 1 Block Shots), M. Slakteris (Hustlas) (23 Points, 12 Rebounds, 0 Assists, 1 Steals, 0 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 27
Power Forward : H. Espinosa (Carolina Rebels) (32 Points, 17 Rebounds, 9 Assists, 1 Steals, 1 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 49
Center : E. Öztün (The Ashkickers) (23 Points, 23 Rebounds, 4 Assists, 2 Steals, 3 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 54

MVP of the evening
E. Öztün (The Ashkickers) (23 Points, 23 Rebounds, 4 Assists, 2 Steals, 3 Block Shots) : Efficiency : 54

The bad performance of the evening
S. Cohen (BOBBBSBURGS) (7 Points, 7 Rebounds, 1 Assists, 1 Steals, 1 Block Shots) : Efficiency : -8

All kinds of statistics
The player who forgot to remove his mittens : D. Parent (Lion Rebels) : 8 Turnovers

Player targeted by the referees : S. Asulin (The Philadelphia Spartans), S. Hatch (Żubr Białystok) : 6 Personnal Fouls

The iron-man : A. Gallucci (Miami Cleo), J. Dotson (Sweaty Socks), H. Espinosa (Carolina Rebels), M. Redman (Motor City Waddupdoe), K. Brown (Lion Rebels) : 48 Minutes

The shooter : K. Brown (Lion Rebels) : 6 Three points

The best performer : S. Fortune (The Ashkickers) : Rating : 16.5

The worst performer : J. Moore (BOBBBSBURGS) : Rating : 1.5