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Playoff Semifinal Series Predictions
Big 8 Semi-Final Game 1: Philly Dribble (1) vs. Lion Rebels (4)
In five games over the last two seasons, Philly has easily handled Lion Rebels four times, with the last game something of a fluke for an 11-point win at home for the Rebels. The issue here is twofold: depth and home court advantage. I don't believe even with a high rating of enthusiasm that the Rebels would be able to pull one out on the road against Philly. We'll have to wait and see, but Philly's dominance at the top of EFFG and OPP EFFG week in and week out don't bold well for the Rebels who badly need some more depth to be able to truly compete.
Prediction: Philly advances to the Conference Finals

Big 8 Semi-Final Game 2: Linndale (2) vs. Rip City Revival (3)
Linndale defeated Rip City in both games this season, the first narrowly by two points, and the second at home confidently by 15. Nikky Nay will be a handful, for sure, and while Rip City has a relatively strong starting 5, will he continue to play Nikky out of position or will he attempt to push further into the playoffs? Meanwhile, Linndale boasts a strong starting 5 with no salary under $23k, including another four off the bench with salaries of at least $14k. Game shape appears equal when it is all said and done - the only question might be enthusiasm related. Does Rip City have enough stored up to pull off the upset and send Linndale packing? As we've seen this season, home court advantage seems to be unreal, so unless Rip sacrifices it all for one game...
Prediction: Linndale advances to the Conference Finals

Great 8 Semi-Final Game 1: The Ashkickers (1) vs. The Beer Bellys (4)
I think the story of this matchup will be defense - that is, Ashkickers D and Beer Bellys non-existent D. Belly lost both matchups against Ash by a combined 43 points and only averaged 80.5 points per game (compared to Ash's 102 per game). 22 points are hard to make up, especially when you struggle to contain the other team's scoring. Interestingly, both teams averaged just over 98 points per game this season...but Ashkickers proved they could shut teams down.
Prediction: The Ashkickers advance to the Conference Finals

Great 8 Semi-Final Game 2: Gremlins (2) vs. Żubr Białystok (3)
Man, the top two teams in this conference are GOOD. And while Żubr Białystok has had a good entry into this league, it's going to be difficult for them to pull this off on the road. While Gremlins beat Żubr Białystok twice this season, their second matchup on the road was only a ten-point victory, compared to the 31-point win earlier in the season at home. Żubr is not in quite the same boat as thatguy's squad, but their problem will definitely be Gremlins great defense combined with their great offense. They'd have to blow their chance at winning the conference finals by using all their enthusiasm to win on the road in this game and I'm not sure they've got the enthusiasm stocked up, though they might. Interesting decision ahead of them.
Prediction: Gremlins advance to the Conference Finals

Last edited by Baine at 7/12/2022 1:03:08 PM

Conference Finals and League Finals Predictions
Big 8 Conference Finals: Philly Dribble (1) vs. Linndale (2)
Is Linndale really going to go for it in year one? I could be wrong on this one, but this is an interesting number to me - in game one of their season series, Linndale got smoked on the road by Philly (91-57). Recent edition Kyle Knowles was playing in only his third game for Linndale and while he had a rating of 13.5 in 34 minutes, his efficiency came in at -6, shooting 4-24 from the field, including 0-8 from three, with Philly's Max Woesler and Paride Fasselli combining to shut him down. It probably didn't help that Linndale went with the Patient approach, while Philly tried to burn the place down with his Run & Gun attack. In their second matchup in the final game of the season, however, Kyle Knowles played much more efficiently, with a rating of 15.0 and an efficiency of 18 scoring 24 points and only 1 turnover. Tactically, both teams switched it up and Linndale’s Inside Defense appeared to overtake Philly at home. I think the outcome of this matchup comes down to Kyle Knowles' performance. If he can be efficient, they've got a shot on the road for the finals. If not, they're heading home.
Prediction: Philly Dribble 92 - Linndale 89

Great 8 Conference Finals: The Ashkickers (1) vs. Gremlins (2)
Gizmo have to be kicking themselves for losing out on home court advantage through the conference playoffs by losing to Ashkickers in the final matchup of the season. They Defeated Ash at home before the all-star break by 13 with defense showing up big with Gremlins not able to score 80 points, but keeping Ash to less than 70. Ashkickers flipped the script in game two, employing a Run & Gun tactic that pushed them over the top, scoring 97 points and holding Gremlins to 82 to replace them in the standings. These two have been neck and neck in the rankings for efficiency, bouncing back and forth around each other in both EFFG and OPP EFFG. In their final matchup, Gremlins C W. Chan Kiew struggled, going 3-11 from the field while still pulling down 10 rebounds, but turning the ball over several times and ringing up 5 fouls in 37 minutes. Looking at the different game logs, I think this comes down to whether or not The Ashkickers can score from beyond the arc and if they can get to the line (kinda like James Harden!). They have the advantage of being at home and after Gremlins lost last season to Scrap Heap Low Posters in the Finals, they've got to be nervous to feel like they might have underperformed this season by potentially letting The Ashkickers overtake them.
Prediction: Gremlins 97 - Ashkickers 98 (Overtime)

Season 57 Finals Prediction
Philly Dribble vs. The Ashkickers
Philly brings in both a better offense and defense (based on points per game and points allowed per game) and has consistently dominated the league in efficiency. (Not to bring down Ashkickers - they've consistently been near the top in both categories as well). In their only game this season, Philly dominated with a 25-point win, jumping out to an 11-point lead, before holding Ash to only 10 points in the third quarter. They've both got quality outside attacks, so if this is indeed the matchup, it will be interesting to see how it plays out. You have to go back to season 55 for the last time Ashkickers beat Philly, but it was pretty handily, 92-54 at Ash's home court. Both teams have developed a lot in two seasons, however, so I don't know how viable that is as a data point for review. With home court advantage, I think this goes Philly's way, but I think enthusiasm stock levels will go a long way to seeing how this plays out.
Prediction: Philly wins in three games
Game One: Philly 93 - Ashkickers 83
Game Two: Ashkickers 94 - Philly 89
Game Three: Philly 91 - Ashkickers 88

Season 57 Stats
Just for something to do while some of us idly wait for the season to wind down...good luck to those of you still fighting for promotion or to stay put! All stats are per game.

Team Stats
Offensive Stats
Points Per Game
1. pintipv 102.6 (pint came almost out of nowhere at the end there - with 6 games left in the season, they were averaging 95.5 PPG - here's their last six games' scores: 128, 147, 114, 113, 110, 117 to give them the league lead)
2. Gremlins 102.4
3. Philly Dribble 100.8
Only three teams averaged at least 100 points this season - last season we had 6 teams

Best Point Differential
1. Philly Dribble 22.9
2. The Ashkickers 16.9
3. Linndale 16.3
Gremlins on the outside looking in with 16.0

Highest FG Percentage
1. Philly Dribble 46.5%
2. Gremlins 45%
3. Linndale 44.2%

Best 3-Point Percentage
1. Philly Dribble 41.4%
2. The Ashkickers 41.3%
3. pintipv 38.5%

Top Assisting Teams
1. Philly Dribble 21.3
2. The Beer Bellys 20.8
3. Linndale 20.2

Best Offensive Rebounding Teams
1. San Dominica Warriors 15.4
2. Gremlins 13.8
3. Dallas Bomskwad 13.4
Pretty incredible to see the 2nd highest field goal shooting team at #2 on this list - typically goes to the lower FG% teams

Most Efficient Teams of the Season
1. Philly Dribble 124.2
2. Gremlins 122.5
3. Linndale 118.1

Defensive Stats
Points Allowed Per Game
1. Rip City Revival 76.1
2. Philly Dribbe 77.9
3. Lion Rebels 78.9
Half the league allowed less than 86.4 PPG

Top Rebounding Teams
1. Gremlins 53.3
2. San Dominica Warriors 52.7
3. The Ashkickers 52.5

Best Blocking Teams
1. San Dominica Warriors 7.2
2. The Ashkickers 7.1
3. Lion Rebels, Mighty Moose Rockets, Miami Cleo 5.8

Teams with the most Gary Paytons (Steals)
1. Lion Rebels 7.9
2. Rip City Revival 7.7
3. Linndale 7.3
Four other teams with at least 7, but less than 7.3 steals per game

Least Turnover Prone Teams
1. Mighty Moose Rockets, Linndale 9.3
2. San Dominica Warrriors 9.5
3. Philly Dribble 9.6

Random Stats
Highest Season Receipts Total
1. Philly Dribble $2.612 M
2. Gremlins $2.559 M
3. Linndale $2.557 M

Most Personal Fouls per Team
1. Linndale 18.3
2. pintipv 17.8
3. Żubr Białystok 17.3

- Free throw shooting was not our strong suit this season, with only 4 teams averaging more than 75% from the stripe and no one had hit 82% on the season.
- Only three teams had less than 85 efficiency per game
- All DIV III.11 teams made it to at least round 3 in the Cup, 13 teams extended their run to round 4, 7 proceeded to Round 5, three more dropped out after Round 6, War Birds made it to Round 7, and Philly Dribble pushed into Round 8 before losing to a DIV.II team.

Season 57 Stats - Part Two - Player Stats!
Just a quick note - I'm only considering players who played at least 16 games this season.

Scoring Champions
1. Nikos Neochoritis - Rip City Revival: 28.3 PPG
2. Dan Donlon - pintipv: 26.3 PPG
3. Cristiano Masetti - Weather Society: 25.3 PPG
Eight players averaged at least 20.1 PPG

Field Goal Shooting Leaders
1. Wu Chan Kiew - Gremlins: 55.2%
2. Huang Yuyao - Żubr Białystok: 52.4%
3. Arthur Newman - The Ashkickers: 51.9%

3Pts Shooting Leaders*
1. Collin McMahon - War Birds: 46.7% of 135 attempts
2. Miguel Velasco - Philly Dribble: 45.6 of 68 attempts
3. Arys Varpukevicius - Miami Cleo: 45.3 of 95 attempts
*Special mentions for Arthur Newman - The Ashkickers: 58.5% (but only attempted 41 3s) and Paul Lutz - Linndale, who technically tied Varpukevicius with 45.3%, but took 31 less shots from beyond the arc.

Free Throw Shooting Leaders
1. Vincente Valladares - San Dominica Warriors: 91.7%
2. Andrzej Zakrzewski - Gremlins: 90.2%
3. Kurt McNulty - Mighty Moose Rockets: 90.0%

Dennis Rodman Award
1. Terry Armstead - Lion Rebels: 15.6 RPG
2. Jukums Pugejs - Seattle SuperSonicz: 14.4 RPG
3. Walenty Kofan - Mighty Moose Rockets: 13.8 RPG

John Stockton Award
1. Dwayne Nava - Gremlins: 7.1 APG (4.7 AST/TO)
2. Lorenzo Rojas - The Ashkickers: 5.2 APG (3.5 AST/TO)
3. Thomas Lagorce - Linndale: 4.6 APG (4.6 AST/TO)
* Nava had 156 total assists - 55 more than the next closest total

Dikembe Mutumbo Award
1. David Charles - Mighty Moose Rockets: 2.2 BPG
2. Patrick Cheatle - Miami Cleo: 2.1 BPG
3. Ramón Peñalver - Gremlins: 2.0 BPG

Gary Payton Award
1. Fabián Carrillo/Arys Varpukevicius - Lion Rebels/Miami Cleo: 1.9 SPG
2. Francisco Javier Cristancho - Seattle SuperSonicz: 1.7 SPG

Best Players
Best Players by Rating
1. Terry Armstead - Lion Rebels: 15.9 Average Rating
2. Migeul Velasco - Philly Dribble: 15.6 AR
3. Timotheos Grigoropoulos/Paride Fasselli - Dallas Bomskwad/Philly Dribble: 15.5 AR

Best Players by Efficiency
1. Walenty Kofan - Mighty Moose Rockets: 28.5 Average Efficiency
2. Terry Armstead - Lion Rebels: 27.6 AE
3. Jean Louis Fleurent - Mighty Moose Rockets: 24.7 AE

Worst Players
Worst Players by Rating
1. Austin Langley - pintipv: 6.3 AR on 14.6 MPG
2. Marcus Cornwell - Weather Society: 6.6 AR on 15.2 MPG
3. John Hicks - Rip City Revival: 6.9 AR on 12.3 MPG

Worst Players by Efficiency
1. Joe McCloud - Dallas Bomskwad: 0.8 AE on 20.6 MPG
2. Claro San Beunaventura - Weather Society: 1.2 AE on 10.4 MPG
3. John Hicks - Rip City Revival: 2.0 AE on 12.3 MPG

Stay tuned for my MVP predictions!

Season 57 MVP Predictions
Alrighty, time for some MVP predictions because I'm heading out of town to go camping this weekend and won't have time to do it before then...as always, I'm sure these are flawed, but I'm trying to refine my processes here and there as we go. Similarly to last year, I've broken this down into rankings by Average Efficiency, Efficiency Per 48 min, and Average Rating. Ranking points go like this:
1st - 20 points
2nd - 18
3rd - 16
4th - 14
5th - 12
6th - 10
7th - 9.5
8th - 9
9th - 8.5
10th - 8
11th - 7.5
12th - 7
13th - 6.5
14th - 6
15th - 5.5
16th - 5
17th - 4
18th - 3
19th - 2
20th - 1

So, wherever a player ranked (there were 32 different players between the three different top 20 lists), they received that amount of points and then I just added up those points to give me this list of top ten.

Probably didn't need to include 20, but the list of rankings from Buzzer Manager includes twenty so I just used that to build the list. I'm including their higher stats and then rankings (in top 5 in our league, top 25 in our division, top 50 in USA, and top 500 in world)

In reverse order!
10. Isidre Homs (PF - The Beer Bellys) 21 yrs - 13.9 PPG | 11.4 RPG | 19.6 AE | 12.0 AR (Ranks #4 OR, #5 OR/Game)
09. Toni Colomina (PF - The Ashkickers) 32 yrs - 9.4 PPG | 13.5 RPG | 19.5 AE | 11.8 AR (Ranks #2 REB, #4 RPG, #2 DR, #2 DR/Game)
08. Miguel Velasco (PG - Philly Dribble) 25 yrs - 13.2 PPG | 4.0 APG | 14.7 AE | 15.6 AR (Ranks #2 3FG%, #2 Rating)
07. Graziano Gattoni (SG - The Ashkickers) 29 yrs - 21.0 PPG | 51% FG | 22.0 AE | 13.9 AR (Ranks #7 PTS)
06. Nikos Neochoritis (PF [really SG] - Rip City Revival) 27 yrs | 28.3 | 6.0 RPG | 23.8 AE | 12.8 AR (Ranks #1 PTS, #1 FG Made, #1 FT Made, #4 3FG Made | In Division III ranks #14 PTS, #11 FG Made)
05. Ramón Peñalver (PF - Gremlins) 31 yrs | 17.3 PPG | 10.5 RPG | 22.3 AE | 13.6 AR (Ranks #5 FG%, #2 BLK, #3 BLK/Game)
04. Wu Chan Kiew (C - Gremlins) 31 yrs | 13.8 PPG | 11.0 RPG | 22 AE | 14.2 AR (Ranks #1 FG%, #2 FT% | In Division III ranks #23 in FG%)
03. Jean-Louis Fleurent (C - Mighty Moose Rockets) 29 yrs | 23.3 PPG | 8.4 RPG | 24.7 AE | 14.2 AR (Ranks #4 PTS, #4 FG Made, #4 PTS/Game, #2 FT Made,)
02. Walenty Kofan (PF - Mighty Moose Rockets) 30 yrs | 19.4 PPG | 13.8 RPG | 28.5 AE | 14.8 AR (Ranks #4 REB, #3 REB/Game, #3 FG%, #4 DR/G)
01. Terry Armstead (C - Lion Rebels) 29 yrs | 14.9 PPG | 15.6 RPG | 27.6 AE | 15.9 AR (Ranks #1 REB, #4 FG%, #1 DR/G, #3 OR | In Division III ranks #4 in DR | In USA ranks #40 in REB, #16 in DR | In World ranks #428 in DR)

...Now, I want to point out for the record, that last season, even though Terry Armstead won MVP, I didn't predict it and instead predicted him to come in 3rd. I really thought Walenty Kofan deserved it and I basically feel the same way this season. I won't be surprised if I'm wrong, but I'm betting I got at least 8 of these names correct. Others potentially receiving votes: David Charles, Timotheos Grigoropoulous, and Arys Varpukevicius. I'm sure others could make an argument for someone else, but this is what I've come up with.

Can't wait to wake up next week and find out the real results!

Congrats to Gremlins on the championship and to Nikky Nay for the MVP award - much deserved! Fun season - congrats to those moving on up, good luck to those relegating. We'll see what season 58 shall bring!

Long Overdue Draft Recap - Part One
With the draft far away in the rearview mirror, now is as good of time as any to do a recap (I'm so bored at work, guys!). I went through all the draft picks and gave them a score from 0-15 for each round based on potential, salary, and age. But first, some interesting tidbits and notes!

"Interesting" Tidbits and Notes
Not one player in the season 57 draft for III.11 had higher than an MVP potential, with 5 players having that potential, and only one of them being 18 years old.
Out of all 48 players drafted, only one had a Superstar potential rating.
Allstars were the most plentiful with 10 available followed by Starters and Perennial Allstars with 9 each.
War Birds had the unfortunate luck to draft the lone Announcer potential player, Samuel Gifford, an 18 year old PF who was promptly fired - this was pick number 4 in the third round.
Rip City Revival drafted a 19 yearold PG with the 12th pick in the third round with a salary of $6,783 and the lone Superstar potential player, earning the highest points for the third round.
Two other 19 year olds had above $5.5k salaries - one of them drafted by Mighty Moose with MVP potential and was sold for a cool $800 grand.
Other than that sale, the league didn't make that much off of rookie transfers, totaling 1.027 million dollars in sales.
pintipv drafted a 7'3" tall Center in the third round, the tallest in the draft.
The draft was split evenly between 18 & 19 year olds with 24 apiece.
All draftees salaries averaged out to $3,012.23.
Of the 48 draftees, 16 remain rostered with their original team, 20 were fired, and 11 were sold.

Draft Scores
With the tidbits over and done with, here are the ranks and scores for each team from the draft:

16. War Birds (9 points)
War Birds did not have a good draft, getting a D- and F- in rounds 2 & 3, however, they did draft a young center at 4th that received a B rating (but was still fired).

15. The Beer Bellys (10)
A C- in the first round followed by a D and D- in the 2nd and 3rd rounds with thatguy hanging onto D rated PG Paris Alvarado who has been getting some Cup minutes as a backup small forward.

14. Gremlins (11)
Last season's champs shuffled onto Div II with not much to show from their draft prospects - I'd imagine it was an unscouted "wing it" season for them. B-rated prospect Major Wells was fired and was followed in the draft by a D+ rated 19 PF and a Benchwarmer potential PG with an F rating, both of which were fired as well.

13. Seattle SuperSonicz (14)
Largely lower third in each of their picks, Seattle has held onto 19 PG Mark Spear with an Allstar potential their highest rated with a B-. Their 2nd round pick was a 18 year old PG with Starter potential, followed by a D rated 18-year old PG; all three players are still rostered.

12. Weather Society (16)
A pretty terrible first pick from Melon Collie, a 19-year old Center with Role Player potential was followed up with what could be a promising 19-year old SG with decent stats rated B, but then they opened the 3rd round with a D rated 19-year old SG; all three players are still rostered.

11. Dallas Bomskwad (19)
Two decent picks sandwich an absolutely bomb for Dallas, who picked 2nd. The first prospect was the only 18-year old MVP potential player, a PG that he sold for $130k. With his second pick, he picked up Benchwarmer potential 18-year old (F-), but then drafted a decentish C (C+ - not great potential but not terrible either), whom they sold for $1k.

Long Overdue Draft Recap - Part Two

9. pintipv & San Dominica Warriors (23)
pintipv swung from one pendulum to the other in the draft, starting out with a D rated 19-year old C (Role Player), then went the other direction drafting a MVP potential 19-year old PF named Leo Patten, netting him the highest score of the 2nd round, but then followed that up with middle of the road 7'3" C Mark Conn (C-). San Dom, was more even keeled, drafting a C rated PG Dee Riggs (sold for $38k), then selected another 19-year old PG who they fired, and finished things up with probably their best pick of the night with B+ rated SF Eric Maples, but Maples didn't pass the sniff test, so they were fired.

7. Rip City Revival & Linndale (24)
Both of these squads swung and relatively missed on their first two picks before hitting in the third round. Rip City (drafting 12th) selected 19 yearold C Marshall Ramos (sold for $1k), then picked 18-year old PG Hugh Dorman (fired), before settling on the highest salaried player in the draft, 19-year old PG Monroe Gray. Linndale, drafting directly after Jbogoroff, drafted a C- rated 18-year old 6th man SF, then a B- rated 19-year old SF (fired), and finished the night off with Daniel Gale, a 19-year old Perennial Allstar potential PF (B+) whom they still have on the roster.

5. Philly Dribble (25)
Philly hit on their first pick, but weren't satisfied with their last two picks, drafting 14th. Still on their roster is 19 year-old MVP potential C Erik Garza, but got a C+ on a 19-year old SG in the 2nd and a D+ on 19 year-old PF with Starter potential.

4. Lion Rebels (28)
Slightly better draft for my team with an A, B, and a dud in the 3rd round with a D+. Sherwood Hollins (18-year old Perennial Allstar C) came in the first, with Curtis Capps (sold for $25k) an Allstar rated PG in the 2nd, and Douglas Smith in the third (19-year old Starter) has managed to stay on the roster because of the minute management.

3. Zubr Bialystok (31)
Pretty solid draft for whitestok with almost all three picks scoring 10+ points, drafting 10th. First up was Perennial Allstar potential Christopher Minton (who didn't have much for skills and was fired), followed by B rated 19-year old C (also fired), and finallyC rated PF with All star potential, also fired (maybe I'm really bad at evaluating these, but as a reminder, the scores are based on who else was drafted in that round).

1. Miami Cleo & Mighty Moose Rockets (39)
All draft picks for both of these teams were ranked in the top 4 of each round, with Miami getting the 2nd highest ranked guy in two rounds, and MMR nailing the first round pick. Miami (drafting 6th) picked up 18-year old Perennial Allstar potential PF Eric Hannon, who they sold for $1k (and is on the market again). In the second round, they picked up 18-year old SF Nathan Garrison (A) who they sold for $22k, and then finished out the third round with a Perennial Allstar PG, 18-year old Mario Trivino, sold for $1k (and then sold again for $3k). MMR, drafted the highest rated pospect in the draft in the first round at #7 with 19-year old SG Albert Rosario, previously mentioned in the $800k sale. They followed that pick up with 19-year old B+ rated PG Charles Williams (sold for $1k, but now retired), and finished up their draft with another now retired player, 18-year old C Ralph Bonds, who had perennial allstar potential.