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From: Yuck
This Post:
00
181220.1
Date: 4/19/2011 2:26:52 AM
Cassville Yuck
III.3
Overall Posts Rated:
555555
Second Team:
Yuckville Cass
Ok I know home/away cup games are random, but I just got assigned my 12th straight cup game on the road. How do you go about figuring out the odds of that happening if this truly is a random event? I can't figure out.

Next question, has anyone else ever had more consecutive home away games?

This Post:
11
181220.2 in reply to 181220.1
Date: 4/19/2011 4:47:41 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
205205
The chance is 2^(-12), or about 0.024%. So, it's certainly rare, and you are very unfortunate. However, this still hapens on average to one in 5000 users over that stretch, so it's not like it's impossible. Over the long run, the odds are even more in the direction of such an event happening to someone.

This Post:
00
181220.3 in reply to 181220.2
Date: 4/19/2011 9:22:09 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
455455
I think your math is off. Having that happen 12 times in a row is far more than 1 in every 5000. It's a lottery winner type fluke.

Last edited by Beener not Beanerz at 4/19/2011 9:23:09 PM

This Post:
00
181220.4 in reply to 181220.3
Date: 4/19/2011 10:33:25 PM
Arizona Cacti
III.8
Overall Posts Rated:
276276
2^12 = 4'096. It's actually a decent amount less than 1:5000.

This Post:
00
181220.6 in reply to 181220.4
Date: 4/21/2011 8:45:14 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
14651465
Which means there are probably about a dozen other managers who have experienced the same run of away cup games and an equal number who have had a similar run of home cup games. Love random probability it defies "common sense" every time!

From: HAHA

To: Yuck
This Post:
55
181220.7 in reply to 181220.1
Date: 6/12/2025 11:47:03 PM
HAHA001
IBL
Overall Posts Rated:
476476
Just look at your schedule, you played 5 cup games at home court this season.

Which season(s) had consecutive cup games on the road?

From: Yuck

To: HAHA
This Post:
22
181220.8 in reply to 181220.7
Date: 6/12/2025 11:55:46 PM
Cassville Yuck
III.3
Overall Posts Rated:
555555
Second Team:
Yuckville Cass
You replied to a post from 14 years ago??? Been sitting on that one for a bit lol.

This Post:
11
181220.9 in reply to 181220.8
Date: 6/16/2025 2:47:27 AM
Tampines Fusion
SBBL
Overall Posts Rated:
467467
Second Team:
ActiveSG Basketball Academy
Congrats, you're one of the few still active people which have their posts necromanced by the HAHA

This Post:
22
181220.10 in reply to 181220.9
Date: 6/16/2025 3:42:24 AM
NakamichiDragons
II.3
Overall Posts Rated:
23032303
Second Team:
Little Computer People
HAHA is working on the „necromance 1.000 posts“ achivement ;-)

founded in S3 IV.5 (34234) - returned in S28 IV.7
From: gassopode

To: Yuck
This Post:
44
181220.11 in reply to 181220.8
Date: 6/16/2025 4:28:36 AM
Gas Team
III.3
Overall Posts Rated:
7777
He took his time to think for an appropriate answer, kudos to him!