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For those of us who haven't followed the NT a lot (and new USA users), we have heard a lot about your disagreements with JP, but we have not seen you articulate on how you would construct the team differently or use different in game tactics. For us new folks, could you use this forum to elaborate on your different philosophy? Thanks.

well here's a simple philsophy i have and alot of others share.

in games where you are the heavy favorite (and thus the better team, or at home with better enthusiasm etc etc), you want to increase the total number of possessions. If you are expected to score... say 1.1 points per possesion (with a huge variance of course) and your opponent is expected to score only .90 points per posession you have a material edge. This is fairly similar to the report you see with bargraphs after the match report, but of course the report is per shot, and doesn't factor in turnovers. for the sake of argument let's also say that if you get 2 offensive rebounds and thus 3 shots, its still effectively one possession.


With me so far?

Great.

So lets take two extreme cases to prove what should be obvious.(leaving out free throws for now)

Case one:

Each team gets one possesion per game. The team that scores 1.1 points per possession has a 40% chance of making 2 points, a 10% chance of making a 3, and a 50% chance of missing altogether.

The weaker team has a 10% chance of making a 3, a 30% chance of making a 2, and a 60% chance of missing altogether.

What are the odds of team 1 winning or team 2 winning?


well the teams will tie (and thus overtime) 43% of the time.

of the remaining 57%, the stronger team will win 33 of 57 cases.

the weaker team will win 24 out of 57 cases (90% of the time when they hit the 3 ball, + 50% of the time when they hit the two ball), .9 + .15 = .24

So despite having a material edge, the stronger team in this case will only win 57.24% of the time, assuming that if the game goes to overtime the same scenario plays out.


Thats clearly unacceptable.

Now in the other extreme. Lets say each team, same percentages gets 1000 possessions a game. What are the odds that the weaker team wins? The answer is very near 0 %

So if you have a sliding scale, you can see a clear correlation between the stronger team wanting to increase the number of posessions and their odds of winning the game.

Even at a sacrifice of .03 points per posession or so, it's still well worth it to increase the number of possessions.

This doesn't even factor in one major factor: Point differential, which is mighty handy to have if there is a 3 way tie with 4-1 records or whatnot. Clearly increased pace = more possessions = more points in blowout wins

So what do we do in the America's tournament?

That's right, not push the pace. We played base offense 4 times, and push teh ball only once. You could say we played base only against strong teams, but there were cupcakes in there, teams we beat by 30 with base offense and we would have beaten by 40 points pushing the ball. Why not full court press a diabolically bad team, run up the score and really have that huge advantage in point differential? (note i dont advocate FCP against good teams).

This isnt high school football, where it's considered bad form to win by more than 4 touchdowns. Blowout wins help here, and help dramatically.

That is one major area, and would keep us with a better margin for error in some situations both in continental play, and in worlds, though in worlds the effect is probaby limited to some of the weakest african opponents etc.

Good questions Toonces..

Do you consider the past few seasons of the NT a success?

This is a tough one... I don't think we ended last year where we wanted to. I think the USNT should be to make it to the world's semifinals. The goal is obviously to win once there, but given the talent that a few other countries have, I don't think we can assume we'll be able to pull that off.

This past season was a bit crazy with the way the schedule, effort and enthusiasm worked out (we ended up CTing a LOT of games in a row). Given all of that, I was actually surprised we got as close to the semi's as we did.

It's a lot easier to just say "Yes! We must win everything or it's a failure! Don't settle for less!", but I think it's important to be rational in our evaluations of both our own team and others, to know when we should win, and when we're the underdog. If you can't make this evaluation accurately, there's no way you can make good tactical choices.

But, don't for a minute think this implies I would do anything short of trying to win a championship.

Is it mandatory to be on the offsite forum or participate in chats during games in order to have a valid opinion when it comes to the NT?

No, but those are the easiest way. Obviously, the NT manager can't tip their hand in the public forums before a game. I guess there's no harm in other people posting suggestions there (since opposing managers won't know if the advice is taken), but it's not going to be a 2-way conversation that way. That's the value of the off-site forums, and I think if you talked to people who had posted there in past seasons, they'd agree that all feedback was taken seriously. It certainly would be by me. For those that don't like the offsite forum, I'd always be open to BBMail and IM discussions as well, but I think that actually encourages the "good ol' boy" network that you're concerned about more than offsite forum/chat communication does.

coco, in spite of your numerous insults of me, i am going to do you a huge favor. seriously

you can look at something that no one else has seen, something that i feel gives me a material advantage.

do you have excel?

can you vow that you will not disseminate it?
can you vow that you will be objective about the tool? (i can also send it to a 2nd nbba member in your conference of your choosing if they also vow to not disseminate it and be objective)

i think i can answer alot of your questions pragmatically if so.

let me know. this is by the way what i would have sent you had you reached out.

bb me your email address if you are interested.

coco has respectfully declined my offer.

which is his right.

that said, if someone from the outside won the election, and wanted my tool, i would give it to them

if i won the election, i would have to consider making it available, although that could well mean international dissemenation, and might instead making it available to a few hard core users who were extremely proficient in math and could help me fine tune a few things (right now the one thing my match predictor does poorly is handle and-1's... until recently this was just about irrelevant as they *almost never* happened)

I can't say one way or another if its a great, average, or terrible tool since it's hasn't been available for use. There's a few good tools out there, including the formula's devised by Josef Ka which seem to be the most cutting edge BB match and team planners. But, IMO, those are just tools to help formulate and outline a plan, not to use to decide the plan.

If this is a good tool, why hasn't this tool helped your club team to more success?

in games where you are the heavy favorite (and thus the better team, or at home with better enthusiasm etc etc), you want to increase the total number of possessions. If you are expected to score... say 1.1 points per possesion (with a huge variance of course) and your opponent is expected to score only .90 points per posession you have a material edge.

etc etc

Ok, hold on a sec. You're treating it as if the points per possession doesn't change based on tactics, but we know that's completely wrong. Playing a high tempo to max out PD is great only if you can maintain your shooting at that tempo. We know that in general, this is not true.

Here's a quote from Charles to this effect (although it's clear from the rules as well):

For example ... your coach might teach in practice that you need to shoot around 30% to take a 3 pointer early in the shot clock ... If a player looks at a 3 pointer and thinks he has a 30% chance to make it, he'll take it ... If you're playing a fast-paced offense, maybe you only need a 25% chance to make the 3 for it to be worth taking; if you can get it off, you'll try it."

Now, where it gets tricky is accounting for opponent defense. Against a poor defense, you don't necessarily want to settle for a quick, low-percentage shot, because if you're even a little bit patient, you could get a MUCH better shot attempt. On the other hand, against a really good defense, no matter how long you wait for your shot, it's possible one won't open up, so you end up forcing a terrible shot up at the buzzer (we've all seen this--the 3 pointers from way beyond the arc as the shot clock expires).

Again, from a post by Charles:

So, let's now say you end up matched up against a tough opponent. You're trying to take that 30% three, because that's what the coach expects. But in practice you can't find it -- the opponents are typically holding you to 10-25% opportunities. ... so you keep waiting for them and then late in the shot clock settle for whatever you can get (on average, in this model, a 17.5% three). "

What this all means is that the tempo shouldn't be thought of as just possessions per game, but rather, how picky you are about getting a good shot. Against bad teams, the effect of a slow-tempo game is actually smaller, because it doesn't take that long to get a good shot. So, maybe RnG gets you a shot a few seconds sooner than Base/Patient, but even with Base/Patient you're going to get a good shot pretty quickly (because you're much better than they are), and now that shot also has a significantly higher chance of going in.

wozz, no one is disputing that. i in fact mentioned it in an earlier post (being willing to trade .03 points per possession for the increased tempo is typically worth it if you would normally be a 10-15 point favorite my sheet shows)

there are other factors of course that aren't so good with slowed tempo. one of which being a slightly increased turnover rate (Note not total # of turnovers, but turnover rate.).



let's take a simple example.

you have an advantage of .1 points per possesion. would you rather keep that advantage over 60 possesions, or would you rather have a .06 points per possession average over 100 possesions?

both options result in a 6 point margin of victory on average, but the range of outcomes is of course different, and the net result depends on distribution of shots. much like you always see the march madness teams that are midmajors causing upsets with the 3 ball, a team that relies on outside offenses can have greater variation than a team getting to the line often and shooting alot of 2 point shots.

anyway, we didn't run nearly enough fast pace offenses. my criticism remains and will continue to remain. if you win and run slow offenses in games we win big i will criticize you, and not just at election time from here on out.


now lets turn the tables on some of the other candidates

1) what difference is there between free throw shooting rates at home vs on the road
2) what difference is there in free throw shooting rates with normal enthusiasm versus TIE
3) if your odds of grabbing an offensive rebound are 25%, and you normally take 3pt shots in 10% of your shots, but are now shooting them 30% of your time, what is your new expected offensive rebound rate?

i have like 7 more of these things that aren't readily published, but I have figured out by myself.some of it is painstaking (Watching alot of matches, because rebound rates based on type of shot arent showed in the box score), and some of it should be known if you are serious about making the top of the game. anyway, these are the things i think about. the things i get enjoyment from solving.

If you don't know the answer to these questions, and you get elected, I can help you with them.

in games where you are the heavy favorite (and thus the better team, or at home with better enthusiasm etc etc), you want to increase the total number of possessions. If you are expected to score... say 1.1 points per possesion (with a huge variance of course) and your opponent is expected to score only .90 points per posession you have a material edge.

etc etc

Ok, hold on a sec. You're treating it as if the points per possession doesn't change based on tactics, but we know that's completely wrong. Playing a high tempo to max out PD is great only if you can maintain your shooting at that tempo. We know that in general, this is not true.

Here's a quote from Charles to this effect (although it's clear from the rules as well):

For example ... your coach might teach in practice that you need to shoot around 30% to take a 3 pointer early in the shot clock ... If a player looks at a 3 pointer and thinks he has a 30% chance to make it, he'll take it ... If you're playing a fast-paced offense, maybe you only need a 25% chance to make the 3 for it to be worth taking; if you can get it off, you'll try it."

Now, where it gets tricky is accounting for opponent defense. Against a poor defense, you don't necessarily want to settle for a quick, low-percentage shot, because if you're even a little bit patient, you could get a MUCH better shot attempt. On the other hand, against a really good defense, no matter how long you wait for your shot, it's possible one won't open up, so you end up forcing a terrible shot up at the buzzer (we've all seen this--the 3 pointers from way beyond the arc as the shot clock expires).

Again, from a post by Charles:

So, let's now say you end up m

I can't say one way or another if its a great, average, or terrible tool since it's hasn't been available for use. There's a few good tools out there, including the formula's devised by Josef Ka which seem to be the most cutting edge BB match and team planners. But, IMO, those are just tools to help formulate and outline a plan, not to use to decide the plan.

If this is a good tool, why hasn't this tool helped your club team to more success?

Let's take a look at my club team season by season
Season 2: i join on a lark 20 games into the season, have NO idea what im doing. get promoted via bot cleanup to d3, in spite of playing a total of 2 regular season games and being clueless

Season 3: i still dont really log in or do important things like consistently schedule friendlies till about half way through. make a number of errors but finish 4th. Give the eventual winner a ride in the playoffs but lose by 5

Season 4: i start figuring things out. Start building my team for meaningful success. Have a decent run, but no money to get big men, finish with a middling record

Season 5: The season before Full COurt PRess became nerfed. Once i figured out the increase in turnovers was worth almost any increase in shots made, I FCP virtually every game. After starting 1-3 i finish on a 20-2 run to win my division from the 3 seed in the much harder conference.

Season 6: First season in d2. I actually buy a big man. Still dont have a power forward of any value, but middling record = playoffs

Season 7: False dawn. I get very lucky with a # of buzzerbeating wins, finish 15-7, make the finals, take Thats WhatSheSaid to game 3, he has the better team and can match up with greer and ortega, i lose.

Season 8: I actually have what's close to the final version of the tool here. I am complacent abot improving my team, and finish 11-11, miss the playoffs narrowly (also helps that right at the end of the season I get married of all things)

Season 9: Disaster. Infatuated with Paul Wendon, i attempt to make my own mini wendon, hoping they become the wave of the future (for those who don't know WEndon is the canadian SF that has prolific in just about every skill). I buy some short 19 year old centers with some meaningful inside skills, and try to play them at guard and train as such. Epic Failure. Too much talent being mis-allocated = demotion.

Season 10: I realize my mistake, cut my losses (selling my most promising guy for a loss a full year later), keep training guards, adjust for the fact that my best outside players sometimes have to play SF, and roll through the season, calling my record 3 weeks in, hitting it on the head and sweeping through the playoffs.

Season 11: Back in d2. Have a brutal conference and a very tough division. I have a slightly below average salary but think I can make a real move. My team should hold up ok.

I basically made one huge mistake in Season 9, with a failed training strategy. It really set me back 2+ seasons, but that's ok. I learned from my mistake, have adjusted and will keep moving forward.