BuzzerBeater Forums

Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.

In your opinion what are they concealing?

Ratings, they played CT.
Ofc there is a bad luck for you in this game, but like everywhere, a batter team doesn't win every time..

Cheers!

Ok, it's shit
but I still think (in BB) it's ridiculous

Cheers

If you just use the ratings the way you did here (selectively if anything) then you could assume that the multiplication effects of efforts kill your advantage pretty quickly. Assuming CT is 1.20 and TIE is 0.80 (too lazy to google forums) then
inside scoring = 11 to 9.5
outside scoring = 10.5 to 12
rebounding = 8 to 7
game flow = 8 to 7

Italy by 2 in that case. And that doesn't even include how the actual performance of each individual player is effected by game strategy, position and game shop.

This isn't like the 76ers beating GSW in 7 but more like Twolves beating GSW when Kerr was out with back spasms and Curry was more interested in dancing on the sidelines. Tactic just beat mono-monsters (Come on - Thib can outcoach a Kerr on pain meds any day!)

Last edited by Randy Maus at 2/14/2017 3:21:39 PM

This is fairly simple: the ratings should give an idea about what's reasonable to expect in normal conditions given the match-up, so they should be the expected average of the statistical distribution used for the events they describe.

I mean it's a real upset but as we all know - the ratings weight positions differently thus there's always a potential that position mismatch will lead to differential outcomes. With this effort mismatch - i'd say it's more of a 75/25 advantage Italy here and an OT win makes sense. If we can't assume that human direct input (coaching) will trump basic set probabilities then this game has a glaring issue.

Just watch parts of the 4th quarter and OT and you'll see how the Nederlands used each and every potential mismatch and opportunity they had. The teams are well-balanced outside (as the ratings show) thus playing a 3-2 zone enabled NL to limit quality touches for the inside monsters (advantage Italy as the ratings show). No idea about what the Italian SF looks like but it seems that his outside defense was exploited by NL, thus the rating advantage was limited. Playing two > 40k inside players probably means that they have bad driving and handling so yet again - bad looks created by putting pressure on guards leads to limited upside of high ID and IS.



Last edited by Randy Maus at 2/14/2017 8:46:42 PM