BuzzerBeater Forums

i have to highly dis agree with you that pr managers are worthless, I make 1.3 million a season playing bots and in 5 league.. Yes thats 100% true.

I had a few pr manager in my time (2-3) and some work better than others, Not all off them do the same work and get the same results.

Choose which one is right for you and to what team is trying to do. Then only then will your pr manager be worth what you pay him.

Yep I reported that injury bug , but you weirdos didn't think 6 of 8 injuries in the first quarter could be considered a bug.

I'm going to probably go deeper into the math than either of us would like, so feel free to look for the "LOOK HERE!" and just start reading from there, but if you're interested in actually understanding, here goes.

Let's assume that OT is not involved, and that each injury has an equal chance of occurring in each of the four quarters. Seems reasonable enough, right? There may be other factors we don't know of but this should be a good enough baseline. So the chances of any given injury occurring in the first quarter specifically are 1 in 4.

For this to happen six of eight times, we first need to figure out how many distinct outcomes there are - which is 4 to the 8th power, which would be the same as 16 to the fourth or 256 squared, or 65536. So if we pick a number randomly from 1 to 4 a total of eight times, and represented it with an 8-digit number, it could be for example:
11111111
Which would represent 8 straight first quarter injuries.

Now, there is only 1 way to come up with 8 ones, so that's a single occurrence. To have 7 of the 8 be ones, there are 24 different combinations (8 different choices for the non-1 digit, times 3 different options). For 6 of 8 to be ones, it's a little more complicated - there are 28 distinct pairs of digits to choose from (8 for the first, 7 for the second, divided by two because order doesn't matter) and then 9 different combinations for those two digits to be non-1s, so a total of 252.

So adding it up, there are 1 + 24 + 252 = 277 different combinations to receive 6 or more 1st quarter injuries out of 8 consecutive injuries. When we divide 277 by 65536 ...

LOOK HERE!
The likelihood of you having at least six of your eight injuries be in the first quarter is 0.42%. Which means, in a game with 40,000 users, it would be reasonable to assume that this specific scenario or the harsher variants would happen to 169 users. So please understand that just because something is unlikely to happen to any one person, it doesn't mean that it's unlikely to happen at all and assume that if it affects you then it must be a bug.

(*) - Or 168 if we rounded the probability to the 0.42 before multiplying, which would be less accurate but should probably be pointed out so that extra user is accounted for.

Last edited by GM-hrudey at 2/13/2013 1:59:24 PM

I for one appreciate your patience and effort.

This is great, but you're assuming this is unique to this season, when it has been happening since I started playing the game. The great majority of injuries that have happened to me have been in the first quarter, not just this season, but since I started playing back in Season 12.
Looks like you've been playing for over 6 seasons , have you not noticed anything similar?

nope

This is great, but you're assuming this is unique to this season, when it has been happening since I started playing the game. The great majority of injuries that have happened to me have been in the first quarter, not just this season, but since I started playing back in Season 12.
Looks like you've been playing for over 6 seasons , have you not noticed anything similar?

I'm assuming nothing. I am pointing out that your assertion that there's a bug because it happened six of eight times is a flawed assessment because the expectation is that one of every 250 users would be expected to experience the same thing. If I were concerned specifically about proving/disproving your assertion with any degree of rigor, I'd probably go through the TL and check every injured player to see when their injury was, or go through leagues or some other dataset of a significant size. Statistically speaking, every single injury you have had in your time playing the game is nowhere near relevant enough to come to a valid conclusion about the randomness or lack thereof of the injury process. Of course, if you have a predetermined desire to claim it is buggy for whatever reason, that intent and confirmation bias can certainly give the perception of a bug. ;)

This season i got 2 injuries during the 4th quarter in trash time so this must be broken damn you Charles i can't believe no one noticed it.
This is what happens when all of youre statement are proven wrong youre handing to the only one random thing than can't be 100 % disproven like a drowning man to a straw

I am stating my opinions as they were completely obvious, because they are obvious.

PR Managers are worthless, literally. No one buys them, no one sees any benefit to them other then their tiny home court or road benefit they'll bring if they have a specialty. You can pick up a world renowned PR manager for 1k .
I also like how the specialty bonus doesn't improve with the level of pr manager, what the hell?

Completely, and utterly incorrect.

I've had about 5 or 6 in the first quarter this season alone.
Overall I've had maybe 8 injuries, not totally sure because some were non-serious.

Get a better doctor, one with TI specialty.

What are you even blabbering about? You've never even played HT apparently, with this nonsense you just posted.

I've only played it enough to be a U20 manager and to have the achievement for the #1 league rank in the USA. I imagine that doesn't measure up to your illustrious career, of course, but despite that sad state of affairs I do think I have at least been around there long enough to have some small idea of how the engine there works.

That... was awesome. Ball for you.

I have an advanced doctor with taped up specialty, interestingly enough no player has ever been "taped up" and brought back into the game.

Last edited by JON at 2/14/2013 12:12:43 AM