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PPG is meaningless because the offense could run plays for other players to replace those points; what matters is how many shot attempts it takes to get those points. If a good player takes a ton of tough shots but misses most of them he is hurting his team a lot more than a terrible offensive player who knows his place and doesn't shoot, as long as there are other decent offensive players on his team.

There are other good offensive players on Kobe's team. Kobe's offensive efficiency is about the league average. If you spend any time watching him it is easy to see why: he takes a lot of long contested jumpers 2 point jumpers which he only makes at around ~40% which lowers his averages. Other players on Kobe's team could be taking these shots instead.

Because scoring is the best part of Kobe's game, there can be no justification for putting him in the same category as more efficient offensive players who score a similar amount of points per game with similar or worse teams. Kobe looks awesome when he plays and does some amazing things, but if you look at the actual results of his play it is obvious he is extremely overrated.

Nash is playing about as well as he ever has. There is a lot of precedent for really smart PGs having very good seasons into their later 30s (see: Stockton, John). He has a gigantic effect for every offense he plays for, which is very apparent from adjusted plus/minus (see: www.basketballvalue.com).

For Melo and Pau, read what I wrote earlier.

Just silly, cause we both know that Pau wouldn't have the same efficiency rate if he had as high of usage rate as Kobe.

Also Kobe actually shares the record for most first team all defense selections, with some guys named Garnett, Payton, and Jordan.

P.S. I almost stopped when you said Howard might be the greatest defender ever/ Paul is the greatest passer. 2nd one is more argueable than the 1st.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/gasolpa01.html

Pau still had excellent efficiency when he was with memphis, where he was responsible for about 20% more of the offense (the usage number under the advanced heading) and was the focus of every defense he faced (Memphis was a worse team than current Lakers). The simple fact is he isn't involved with the offense at all on many plays because Kobe is always trying to be the hero, and just having the possibility to be involved on more plays ("first option") would allow him to increase usage with only a very minimal efficiency hit. Pau's efficiency could drop a long way and still be better than Kobe's.

All defense teams mean almost nothing, they go by reputation and there is a long history of slightly above average defenders who are great on offense getting in ahead of excellent defenders who are less well known. Also, Kobe used to be a far better defender when he was younger, quicker, and didn't spend all is energy on offense. I have watched 3 lakers games this season and I have seen about 7 plays total where Kobe didn't get back on defense without a good excuse and let his man get an easy transition dunk. This didn't use to happen to him.

Besides the above paragraph, with how important inside scoring and help defense is in the NBA (and pretty much all basketball for that matter), Cs/PFs will always have a far bigger defensive impact than an SG will. So even if Kobe was better at defense relative to his postion than Pau (which I strongly disagree with), Pau could still easily be a better defender as measured by the impact he has on team defense as a whole.

As far as how great a defender Howard is, defense is harder to measure with stats. But in the few good defensive metrics out there (rebounding, shot blocking, defensive win shares) he has dominated over the last 5 years, and I would argue the NBA has been as strong or stronger than it ever has been over this time period.

His opponent counterpart stats are also awesome, as opposing centers shot just 45% against him last season. This doesn't even take into account his excellent help defense: http://www.82games.com/1011/10ORL18.HTM

Also the Magic have consistently been among the NBA's best defensive teams over this time period despite a roster that is otherwise at best average defensively.

But the biggest thing to me is just watching him play: There has never been anyone in the NBA with his size and athleticism combination, and he takes advantage of it with excellent fundamentals and instinct.

Just wanna add my statement about Paul was purely factual: I didn't say he was the best passer ever, just that among players with otherwise comparable passing statistics he has easily the fewest turnovers of the bunch.

Basketball reference has a feature where you can find seasons by players according to criteria. If you search for seasons by players with more than 45% assist percent (they assist at least 45% of teammates' baskets while they are on the court) and under 15% turnover percent (they commit a turnover on under 15% of possessions they use) with at least 500 minutes played, Chris Pau'ls last 4 seasons are the only seasons that show up.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&lg_id=NBA&is_playoffs=N&year_min=&year_max=&franch_id=&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=0&age_max=99&height_min=0&height_max=99&birth_country_is=Y&birth_country=&is_active=&is_hof=&is_as=&as_comp=gt&as_val=0&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&qual=&c1stat=ast_pct&c1comp=gt&c1val=45&c2stat=tov_pct&c2comp=lt&c2val=15&c3stat=mp&c3comp=gt&c3val=500&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&c5stat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=ws

Pau's highest career usage rate is 26%, not very close to the 39% Kobe is currently at.

And while yes for All defense teams offensive players do tend to have an advantage it still seems to say something that Kobe has 9(including last season) and Pau has exactly 0, I mean I think those voters might know a thing or two about basketball, probably considerably more than either of us.

Finally yes I do believe Kobe should back off a bit on offense, actually to Bynum, but I do not think that makes him any less of a great player.

I would agree that he has been the best over the past 5 years no doubt.

And even though everyone always says the Magic are terribly defensively without Howard I have yet to see actual data to support it, individually Nelson, Redick, and Co aren't that bad.

His athleticism is off the charts, only big man I can think of as more athletic would be good old Wilt.

The best big men defenders I can think of off the top of my head would be Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Hakeem Olajuwon, and Bill Russell. And he compare decently to them, but I wouldn't necessarily say he's better than any of them.

It's extremely difficult to compare great posts to great guards(on offense or defense) so I won't bother.

Kobe winning all defensive team last season was a joke. His team did much better on defense with him off the court. In fact, out of the top 50 players last season in adjusted plus minus, Kobe was the second biggest defensive negative on the list (Durant was the only player worse and Jamal Crawford was almost as bad). See: http://basketballvalue.com/topplayers.php?year=2010-2011

There are a number of players who are obviously better defenders at SG: Iguadala, Wade, Sefolosha, Afflalo all come to mind. I have talked to a wide range of knowledgeable basketball people who virtually all agree with me on this subject.

And yes, I absolutely know more about player evaluation than the sheep-like media who obsess over star power and care far more about apeing public opinion than actually watching games with a critical eye.

I probably don't watch as much basketball as you and I definitely don't know as much statistically as you, but as a Lakers fan I think it's a joke that you put Pau as number 6. Yes, I think he should get more shots on offense, but recently (which is what you're talking about according to your first post) he's been inconsistent and I think ever since Bynum came back he's been better offensively and more at ease getting less shots. As a second/third option he fits in great. He shouldn't get more shots than Kobe though (though I don't think anybody would disagree with you when you say kobe needs to take less shots). Having Bynum as a first-option instead of Kobe is a whole different story though, and I think that question will have more validity as time goes on and Bynum proves to be consistent.

I'm also not so sure how Pau does on the defensive end. I don't have such a great eye for defense, but Pau seems to struggle on pick and rolls and switch situations. His foot-work just becomes so awkward imo. Heck (I may wrong about this) but I think Phil Jackson even took Gasol out in last year's playoffs for crunch time in the 4th quarter because his defense was really lacking (though, his offensive performance could have also explained it). As a one-on-one defender I think he's great though.

I think he's more of a #15 player.

Also, regarding Kobe's defense, I thought it was pretty bad (relatively) last season but this season (maybe his knee feels better?) I think his one-on-one defense has really improved. I haven't been tracking him coming down the court like you have though. Honestly, I think on night's where he isn't "feeling it" he should just save most of his energy for defense, since I think he can really excel there and let Bynum/Gasol control the offense.

Also, I think Anthony might be a victim of your "defensive reputation" idea because the times I've watched him he seemed like he was at least average and probably better than average (again, I'm not great at determining how great a player is defensively).

Too bad the all defense teams are selected by the coaches, bummer.

Last edited by Eminence Front at 1/7/2012 11:59:37 PM

Too bad the all defense teams are selected by the coaches, bummer.

Oops, you of course are right. I still stand by my assesment however. I think the +/- numbers are hard to explain away, and I think coaches also go by reputation more than they should. Here is a graph of Kobe's regularized offensive and defenive plus minus rating over time: http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/players/186.png (I think this site is more accurate than basketballvalue.com).

One thing I firmly believe is that defensive evaluation is much harder than most people think, and even the experts can be wrong. I am probably not an expert, but I do watch a ton of basketball and have done a ton of stats research. I think that the best stats research is currently more accurate than coaches opinions, and that if you polled general managers instead of coaches you would find a lot more people with opinions similar to mine.