You forgot to apply the duplicate account multiplier It use to be .8934 but Joe Ka hasnt' updated it in awhile. You could use Wolph's estimate of .2783 which is a bit suspect but it's something.
This comes down to an issue of gameplay being too complicated, or too simple to be meet the tastes of a larger public. Depending how complex (and difficult) the game is you will gain some people and lose others.