Depends on how you think you will do in your league. Are you a certainty to make playoffs? If you think you can afford to play CT I would crunch time him with your best team. Reason being that there is a good chance he will rest some of his starters, and he may even underestimate you and play TIE. Considering you have HCA and play with CT with your best team against his backup team there is a very good chance you could win.
If he decides to play his starters though you are no chance.
However, even if you play CT and lose, if you are a strong team in your league it won't make much difference and at least you will know you gave it your best shot at beating him.