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National Team Debate Thread (thread closed)

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From: southpaw17

To: Coco
This Post:
00
208821.119 in reply to 208821.113
Date: 2/10/2012 7:19:10 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
3434
Right, you didn't mention it. But if you're *campaigning* on it, it means that there must be something you plan to do that others aren't doing.


Since I've been following the NT there hasn't been a manager that went out into the community anywhere near what I am willing to do. Jfarb would be the last manager to do so.

To dozens of managers... You are saying that even though you haven't ever mentored anyone (not even when jfarb was desperately asking for mentors), and you aren't currently mentoring anyone, now you will start mentoring 50 managers at once. That seems... unbelievable?


You didn't read what i wrote... this is where the staff comes in. They can do what they have always done, i just think it would help to have the NT coach personally deliver it to create more of a pipeline in the community. Lets be honest though... Mentoring isn't that challenging of a task. I was 7-1 2 seasons ago in div II.1 and had i not decided to switch gears and start training cottrell I would be a top team in that league and most likely would have won it this season instead of mfork (no offense if he reads this) I am very comfortable and confident in my ability to build a team and to help other managers do so.

From: southpaw17

To: Coco
This Post:
00
208821.122 in reply to 208821.120
Date: 2/10/2012 11:53:49 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
3434
So, I can agree that cross-training makes the issue complicated. But I want a straight answer, if not because I went through the pain of breaking it down in my previous post: do you now agree that, ignoring CT and elastic effect, training is order-invariant and that height has nothing to do with it?


As of right now.. no.

From: southpaw17

To: Coco
This Post:
00
208821.123 in reply to 208821.121
Date: 2/11/2012 12:00:24 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
3434
That's right! Mentoring isn't a challenging task! You know what's even *less* challenging (and to me of zero usefulness)? Starting a mentoring relationship between a mentor and a user with a BB-mail saying "so and so will mentor you, enjoy! Signed, the NT coach"


Lol. I agree that would be useless. Good thing that's not what I'm talking about. Go back through and read my posts and if you still don't get it I can spell it out for you one more time.

From: evmyster9

This Post:
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208821.124 in reply to 208821.89
Date: 2/11/2012 12:13:14 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
00
yeah my bad ive got really bad internet and pressed the post button multiple times in frustration some of them must of went through haha

From: southpaw17

To: Coco
This Post:
11
208821.126 in reply to 208821.125
Date: 2/11/2012 1:59:45 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
3434
Its not arithmetic that i'm arguing... I have a theory that I'm testing with Cottrell... thats why i say as of now no.

This Post:
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208821.127 in reply to 208821.126
Date: 2/11/2012 8:52:02 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
228228
Its not arithmetic that i'm arguing... I have a theory that I'm testing with Cottrell... thats why i say as of now no.

if there's some new theory you've got, that's a different point. excluding things like elastic effect/cross-training/new theories that can make training effects non-linear, coco is right... training fits squarely into the linear systems analysis world of math/engineering.

now, what can change is the number of weeks you have to play a guy out of position on the way to those goals (doing the out-of-position training later means you devote more weeks to it). which certainly makes it harder for you club team. so to make this a question-- given this point, there's a trade-off for club teams for when to work a guy's secondaries:
(1) early (fewer out of position weeks, delayed salary increases, but longer until they become good)
(2) late (pay an expensive guy to play out of position, which may not be a huge problem with defensive switches)

which strategy would you recommend to managers who draft potentially valuable trainees? #1 obviously hurts the u21 to some degree, so do you have separate instructions for NT prospects vs u21 ones, as magiker alluded to? or do you think one of these is unequivocally better?

From: Azariah

To: Coco
This Post:
11
208821.128 in reply to 208821.68
Date: 2/11/2012 9:34:59 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
103103

What is your suggested fix? FYI, in case you are questioning the fact, Bronson sold for 500k more than a nearly identical player the day before and 1M more than a similar (but higher-salary) player within the same week: bitching about this is well justified.


Deductive reasoning time!

It's a fairly well accepted fact that home country NT players cause a merch bonus equal to 15-20% of their salaries when they play serious minutes. So, for Bronson, that's $45-60k per week.

My experience as I've converted from mostly foreign to about half and half suggests that baseline merch is also improved by having US based players. My baseline merch has gone from ~10% of team salaries to ~15% of team salaries, and it's my understanding that Machines (darykjozef) is near 20% in my league, without any NT players (darky, please correct me if I'm wrong). So, that data seems to suggest that just being a US player causes up to 10% of their salary in merch bonuses, or an additional $30k per week for Bronson.

So, depending on how you want to estimate, Bronson pays back his extra transfer cost compared to a foreign player at a rate of $45-90k per week. At $500k extra cost compared to a "nearly identical" foreign player, this implies a payback window of 6-12 weeks.

So, it seems logical to me to conclude that if you think a $500k extra cost is too much to buy Bronson instead of buying foreign, then what you're *really* saying is that, even for an NBBA team, a monster guard isn't worth keeping for a full season. So, if that's the case, how are we ever supposed to expect that our monster players are going to stay in good GS? Should we really sink all of our eggs into a strategy that apparently will only pay out if we can get the entire NBBA to make a gentleman's agreement to be salary inefficient and lug around NT monster players? (And simple game theory points out why that will be rare at best -- such a gentleman's agreement is basically a Prisoner's Dilemma with no enforcement mechanism between players, so the players should all be expected to "cheat" and avoid the monsters).

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