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Ok we seem to be in agreement.

I was mostly referring more to the point that unguarded shots are 'defended' by team ratings (Trainerman's theory). ID rating is mostly (if not entirely) generated by ID, so if that theory is correct the more unguarded shots you face, the better it would be to have ID over SB (marginal value and marginal cost being equal, which they are not, but that's another discussion).

Thanks

I don't know for sure. ID makes it harder to find a shooting spot inside the paint (and maybe close around it). But the main problem is: how exactly works a steal attempt inside the paint? Only OD, even for bigs? A combination of OD and ID and OD is more important? Or is ID more important? I would go with OD>>ID. The reason is that I have two bigs with similar ID and SB. One of them has OD 1 and the other one a lot more. And the one with more OD gets a lot of more steals. So even if ID is necessary, it has a really small influence.

I think it's probably all OD (or maybe OD + handling). Much like the players with 0 career assists and FT made, I am pretty sure I've run across players with 0 (or very few) lifetime steals. I suppose we couldn't know for sure if any ID is required unless we did tests with low level guys who were drafted maybe with strong OD and bare minimum ID, and had them defend big men, and I doubt that's useful enough information to make the test worth doing anyhow.

Hi to everbody!

I try to find the right direction of my BB-adventure and I like the way you look at SB.
I read this and other threads. I wrote some BB-mail to Nachtmahr too. I wanna be a part of this family

It's the defense against the players. With OD and ID you try to minimize the possible FG% for your opponent. During this time, OD and ID are more important than SB. That's what most of the teams play. But as soon as your opponent decides to shoot, you need SB. So you have actually three ways here:
1) go with ID>SB: you try to defend the player and don't give him a good shooting spot, the block isn't your aim
2) go with ID=SB: The kind of players I prefer and also have.
3) go with SB>ID: you leave your opponent more room to shoot and your main target is to block his shot. I think that's a dangerous option, because you could end up with given more open shots to your opponent because of the lack of ID

[...]

Balance is everything.

I spent a lot of time thinking about ID and SB connection and I don't know if the lack of ID is a problem if you could block your opponent. Also if ID is not enought to avoid a shot, how the same level of SB could block it?

So, as all of you say, the opponent's IS goes against our defender's ID and this one "let him" shoot n fields goals attempts if ID=x.
Of course if ID=x-1 the opponent will shoot at least one more time: n+1. With ID=x+1 we'll see n-1 attempts or less. Or better we'll not see
Then our defender try to block that shot and if we have a similar level of SB we'll probably see the same % of shots blocked (because the same level of IS goes against the same level of SB) but more points against. Here a stupid example: 1 block every 4 attempts (=25%) and 6 pt but 2 blocks every 8 attempts (=25% again) and 12pt. And personal fouls could increase too (= more free throw attempts). Not good at all, but I don't think that with ID=x-1 the opponent is going to take 4 more attempts.
We can agree that more ID is better but ID is not cheaper than SB: 1 level of ID costs a little more than 2 levels of SB. It's true!
Now with ID=x-1 I have more space (both wage and potential) to give him 2 more level of SB and I have a player that will tend to block more shots. In the example he needs to produce 3 more blocks but I say I overrate the plus of shots.
With more SB our defender will be capable to block more shots and will commit less fouls even if his opponent try to face him more times. Again, he will tend to block but if he is capable to do that he will have more success and commits less fouls.

You are not fully convinced? Let me try one more time.
Less attempts, because of our defender's ID, mean less shots but the opponent could pass to another player for a similar attempt and maybe this one is facing to someone not good enought. So I want that opponent has to go again and again on my blockshoter turning all of his attacks into a sort of isolation. I convert his offensive tactics in patient (all the shot to only one man) and I know how to control him especially if this one is not the better opponent.

It make sense?

The way I understand it is that "team ID" will reduce the success probability of making open shots and "individual SB" will reduce the probability of making guarded shots. If you found a team on SB only, lacking OD or ID, you'll be very efficient in defending the guarded shots but also the number of open shots will go up (if you lack team OD) and their success percentages will go up (outside jump shots with low team OD and inside shots with low team ID).

So that tells you:
- (Team) OD is important regardless because stops passes and therefore open shots
- Between ID and SB it is unclear and we would need some data to make a decision. However, if the speculations above, on which we all seem to agree are correct, presumably the more OD you have the more relative value SB has over ID, because you will see less open shots and more guarded shots (saying relatively because the number of open shots might still be substantial). More correctly it is the balance between your own OD and the opponents ability to pass (Flow) that matters: if your OD>>opponent flow, SB is relatively more valuable; if your OD<opponent flow ID is relatively more valuable. I say relatively because we are not able to quantify the effects and have the absolute values.

Driving should enter the discussion too as that creates open shots too as I understand it.

At the moment there are too many variables we would need data on to have a definitive answer: (i.e. keeping tactics constant how many less open shots do you observe given team OD going from 9 to 10 or 10 to 11?; how much less likely are the open shots to succeed if the team OD or ID goes from 9 to 10 or 10 to 11?). The only data we can estimate somewhat (but it would still be not accurate enough) is how much more blocked shots you get from increased shot blocking. Nachtmar gave us an idea, but to have the full picture you need to quantify all these effects, not just the increased blocks.


Last edited by Lemonshine at 11/17/2014 1:09:52 PM